Benevento 0-0 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Como at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Como encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Como travel to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to take on Benevento. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Benevento's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Como — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Como away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Como are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Benevento, 1 for Como and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Como winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Benevento in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Como in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 44% versus Como 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 36% | Como 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 0.85 xG and Como 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.755 / defence 1.247 | Como attack 0.949 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 0.978. Benevento's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Benevento games / 66 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 26% | Draw 32% | Como 42%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Como 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Como are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 40% | Como 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 26% | Draw 32% | Como 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Benevento 0.85 / Como 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.755 / def 1.247 | Como attack 0.949 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.167 / away 0.978 • Poisson stance: Como (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Como xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Como kick off?
Benevento vs Como kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Como?
Benevento 0 - 0 Como.
Where is Benevento vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Como part of?
Benevento vs Como is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 26% chance of winning, Como a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Como?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Benevento and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Como?
Record (3 meetings): Benevento 1W | Draws 1 | Como 1W.
What form are Benevento and Como in?
Benevento (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Como (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Benevento's attack rating (0.76) and Como's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
26%
3.84
32%
3.10
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.01
1.16
Como xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
8%
12.22
18%
5.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 15.5 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Benevento and Como expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Benevento and 1.16 for Como, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Benevento have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 25W 18D 23L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Como's form line: 19W 25D 22L from 66 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.41 PPG, Como on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Benevento have posted 1.41 PPG from 32 outings (13W 6D 13L).
On the road, Como have gone 8W 13D 11L from 32 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.24 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Current Season
Como
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Como in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 25W 18D 23L in their last 66 games (1.41 PPG), while Como have gone 19W 25D 22L in their last 66 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Como away?
Benevento's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.41 PPG; Como away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Benevento or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Como in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benevento and Como runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2022, when Benevento won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benevento's record when hosting Como specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Benevento
2
Draws
1
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Como?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Como have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Como last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Benevento 0-0 Como.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 47%, Como 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Benevento) and 44% (Como).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Benevento's recent matches and 62% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Benevento's recent games and 44% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Como tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Como in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Benevento's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 29, as Benevento and Como drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 0.85 xG and Como 1.16 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Benevento fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Como landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.76 / defence 1.25 against Como attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 26% | Draw 32% | Como 42%, with Como to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 36%, Como 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Como's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.41 PPG, Como 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Como (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.