Benevento 0-2 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 23 as Benevento welcome Ascoli to Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 16 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Benevento — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Benevento) versus 1.50 (Ascoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Benevento, 0 for Ascoli and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Benevento winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Benevento trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ascoli trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 46% versus Ascoli 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 36% | Ascoli 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.53 xG and Ascoli 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.206 / defence 1.023 | Ascoli attack 1.217 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.165. Ascoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ascoli have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Benevento games / 22 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 37% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 34%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Ascoli 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 40% | Ascoli 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 37% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Benevento 1.53 / Ascoli 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.206 / def 1.023 | Ascoli attack 1.217 / def 1.313 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Benevento (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Ascoli xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Ascoli kick off?
Benevento vs Ascoli kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 16 February 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Ascoli?
Benevento 0 - 2 Ascoli.
Where is Benevento vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Ascoli part of?
Benevento vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 37% chance of winning, Ascoli a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Benevento and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Ascoli?
Record (1 meetings): Benevento 1W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 0W.
What form are Benevento and Ascoli in?
Benevento (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Ascoli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Benevento's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Ascoli's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
37%
2.70
29%
3.43
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.98
1.45
Ascoli xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
9%
11.49
7%
13.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Benevento and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Benevento and 1.45 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benevento's recent record stands at 10W 7D 5L from 22 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 7L across 22 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.68 PPG, Ascoli on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Benevento have managed 6W 3D 2L from 11 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 7W 2D 2L across 11 trips, a 2.09 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.50 PPG overall record — Ascoli travel well.
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.36 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ascoli in 64%.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 10W 7D 5L in their last 22 games (1.68 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 9W 6D 7L in their last 22 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.91 PPG; Ascoli away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Benevento or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ascoli in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benevento and Ascoli runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Benevento's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Benevento
2
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Ascoli?
From 5 meetings on record, Benevento have won 2, Ascoli have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2023, when Ascoli 0-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Ascoli?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benevento see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 46%, Ascoli 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Benevento and 64% for Ascoli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Ascoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Benevento's games and 73% of Ascoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Benevento's matches and 64% of Ascoli's.
Do Benevento and Ascoli tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ascoli cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Benevento.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Benevento 0-2 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.53 xG and Ascoli 1.45 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Benevento fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.21 / defence 1.02 against Ascoli attack 1.22 / defence 1.31, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 37% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 34%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Ascoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 36%, Ascoli 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ascoli's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.68 PPG, Ascoli 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ascoli win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ascoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.