Bari 0-3 Venezia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Bari take on Venezia.

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Fixture Analysis

Bari welcome Venezia to Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 25 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bari stand at 2W 7D 1L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Bari's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Venezia — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Venezia have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Venezia's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Bari's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bari, 0 for Venezia and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Mar 2023, ended Bari 1–0 Venezia — a Bari win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Bari trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).

Venezia trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 50% versus Venezia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 33% | Venezia 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bari surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Venezia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Venezia surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Bari recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 0.92 xG and Venezia 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.009 / defence 0.867 | Venezia attack 0.910 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.190. Data: built from Bari's last 51 games and Venezia's last 51.

Result probabilities: Bari 32% | Draw 35% | Venezia 33%. Fair-value odds: Bari 3.14 | Draw 2.86 | Venezia 3.02. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 72% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bari's last 10 home games and Venezia's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bari 50% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 60% (last 10 away games).

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