Bari 2-2 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bari and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bari's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bari have posted 1W 3D 1L at Stadio Comunale San Nicola — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Comunale San Nicola this season.
Sudtirol (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Bari, 1.90 for Sudtirol — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 58% versus Sudtirol 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 42% | Sudtirol 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.32 xG and Sudtirol 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.049 / defence 1.158 | Sudtirol attack 0.914 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.076. Data: 12 Bari games / 12 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 40% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 31%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Sudtirol 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bari at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bari 60% | Sudtirol 33%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 40% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Bari 1.32 / Sudtirol 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.049 / def 1.158 | Sudtirol attack 0.914 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Bari (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sudtirol xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Sudtirol kick off?
Bari vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Sudtirol?
Bari 2 - 2 Sudtirol.
Where is Bari vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Sudtirol part of?
Bari vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 40% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bari and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bari and Sudtirol in?
Bari (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bari's attack rating (1.05) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.91x) against Bari's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
40%
2.49
29%
3.49
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Bari xG
Total xG
2.46
1.14
Sudtirol xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bari and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Bari and 1.14 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Bari have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 5W 5D 2L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol's form line: 5W 4D 3L from 12 games, 1.58 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Bari against 1.58 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (1W 3D 1L). That actually lags their 1.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.58 PPG overall record — Sudtirol travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bari are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.17 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 5W 5D 2L in their last 12 games (1.67 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.20 PPG; Sudtirol away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bari
4
Draws
4
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Sudtirol?
From 10 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Sudtirol have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Sudtirol 0-0 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 60%, Sudtirol 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Bari) and 40% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 40%; Bari have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Bari's recent matches and 40% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Bari's recent games and 40% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari and Sudtirol finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.32 xG and Sudtirol 1.14 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sudtirol outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.05 / defence 1.16 against Sudtirol attack 0.91 / defence 1.03, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 40% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 31%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 42%, Sudtirol 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.67 PPG, Sudtirol 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.