Alessandria 2-0 Pordenone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alessandria at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alessandria vs Pordenone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pordenone make the trip to Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta to face Alessandria in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Alessandria (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Alessandria have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Alessandria are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta than their overall form suggests.
Pordenone's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pordenone away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.30 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Alessandria lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Pordenone winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Alessandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Pordenone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alessandria 48% versus Pordenone 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alessandria 46% | Pordenone 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 1.23 xG and Pordenone 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.811 / defence 1.350 | Pordenone attack 0.584 / defence 1.446. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 1.064. Pordenone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.446 — this is suppressing Alessandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Alessandria games / 33 Pordenone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alessandria 42% | Draw 36% | Pordenone 22%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 2.38 | Draw 2.78 | Pordenone 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alessandria as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alessandria if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Alessandria 50% | Pordenone 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Pordenone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 42% | Draw 36% | Pordenone 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Alessandria 1.23 / Pordenone 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.811 / def 1.350 | Pordenone attack 0.584 / def 1.446 | league avg home 1.051 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Alessandria (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Pordenone xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Pordenone kick off?
Alessandria vs Pordenone kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Pordenone?
Alessandria 2 - 0 Pordenone.
Where is Alessandria vs Pordenone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Pordenone part of?
Alessandria vs Pordenone is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Pordenone?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 42% chance of winning, Pordenone a 22% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Alessandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Pordenone?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Alessandria and Pordenone will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Pordenone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Pordenone?
Record (1 meetings): Alessandria 0W | Draws 0 | Pordenone 1W.
What form are Alessandria and Pordenone in?
Alessandria (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Pordenone (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Alessandria's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Pordenone's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Pordenone's attack (0.58x) against Alessandria's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alessandria Win
42%
2.37
36%
2.78
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Alessandria xG
Total xG
2.07
0.84
Pordenone xG
2.37
42%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
6%
15.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Pordenone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Pordenone expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Alessandria and 0.84 for Pordenone, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Pordenone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Alessandria have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 6W 8D 19L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Pordenone's form line: 3W 8D 22L from 33 games, 0.52 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.79 PPG for Alessandria against 0.52 for Pordenone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Alessandria have posted 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L).
On the road, Pordenone have gone 1W 2D 13L from 16 away games — 0.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alessandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alessandria are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Pordenone are on 0.73 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Current Season
Pordenone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Pordenone in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 6W 8D 19L in their last 33 games (0.79 PPG), while Pordenone have gone 3W 8D 22L in their last 33 (0.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alessandria at home or Pordenone away?
Alessandria's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alessandria at home: 1.06 PPG; Pordenone away: 0.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Alessandria
0
Draws
1
Pordenone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Pordenone?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 1, Pordenone have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Pordenone last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when Alessandria 2-0 Pordenone.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Pordenone see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alessandria 50%, Pordenone 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Alessandria) and 44% (Pordenone).
On the defensive side: Pordenone in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Pordenone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Pordenone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Alessandria's recent matches and 44% of Pordenone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alessandria vs Pordenone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Alessandria's recent games and 44% of Pordenone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alessandria and Pordenone tend to score early?
Alessandria have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Pordenone in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alessandria cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pordenone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alessandria beat Pordenone 2-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 1.23 xG and Pordenone 0.84 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pordenone landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.81 / defence 1.35 against Pordenone attack 0.58 / defence 1.45, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 42% | Draw 36% | Pordenone 22%, with Alessandria to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 46%, Pordenone 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alessandria's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Pordenone's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alessandria 0.79 PPG, Pordenone 0.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alessandria win broke the near-deadlock. Alessandria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.