Venezia 0-0 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lazio (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Venezia face Lazio.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Lazio in Serie A (matchday 26). Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Venezia's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Venezia's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lazio have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Lazio have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Lazio are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Lazio, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2024, ended Venezia 1–3 Lazio — a Lazio win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Lazio have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Lazio half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 57% versus Lazio 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 60% | Lazio 54%). Note also that Lazio surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Venezia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.91 xG and Lazio 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.730 / defence 1.070 | Lazio attack 1.133 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.270. Venezia's attack rating of 0.730 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Venezia's last 25 games and Lazio's last 63.
Result probabilities: Venezia 20% | Draw 31% | Lazio 50%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 5.06 | Draw 3.28 | Lazio 2.01. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lazio are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Venezia 60% (last 10 home games) | Lazio 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 20% | Draw 31% | Lazio 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Venezia 0.91 / Lazio 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.730 / def 1.070 | Lazio attack 1.133 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Lazio (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Lazio xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Venezia vs Lazio FAQs
What time does Venezia vs Lazio kick off?
Venezia vs Lazio kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Lazio?
Venezia 0 - 0 Lazio.
Where is Venezia vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Lazio part of?
Venezia vs Lazio is a Serie A fixture (matchday 26) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 20% chance of winning, Lazio a 50% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Venezia and Lazio will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Venezia vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.73x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (1.13x) against Venezia's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from Venezia's last 25 games and Lazio's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-2 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
20%
5.06
31%
3.28
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.44
1.54
Lazio xG
5.06
20%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
4%
23.56
20%
4.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 13.3 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Venezia vs Lazio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Venezia and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Venezia and 1.54 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia come into this having played 63 games, going 25W 13D 25L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Lazio sit at 1.70 PPG from 63 outings (32W 11D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Venezia against 1.70 for Lazio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Venezia's home form reads 17W 5D 9L across their last 31 home games, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lazio have taken 1.55 points per game from their last 31 away games (15W 3D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.52 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Lazio
Blended
Venezia (Home) vs Lazio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Venezia
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Venezia vs Lazio Form FAQs
What form are Venezia and Lazio in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 25W 13D 25L in their last 63 games (1.40 PPG), while Lazio have gone 32W 11D 20L in their last 63 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Lazio away?
Venezia's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.81 PPG; Lazio away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Venezia and Lazio, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Venezia
1
Draws
4
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Venezia vs Lazio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Lazio?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Venezia have won 0, Lazio have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Venezia and Lazio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Venezia 0-2 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 41% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 64%, Lazio 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Venezia) and 58% (Lazio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Venezia vs Lazio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Venezia and Lazio matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Venezia's games and 61% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Venezia and Lazio matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Venezia's matches and 58% of Lazio's.
Do Venezia and Lazio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Venezia's recent matches and 81% of Lazio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Venezia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 26, as Venezia and Lazio drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.91 xG and Lazio 1.54 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Venezia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Lazio landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.73 / defence 1.07 against Lazio attack 1.13 / defence 0.93, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 20% | Draw 31% | Lazio 50%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 60%, Lazio 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lazio's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.40 PPG, Lazio 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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