Venezia vs Genoa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Genoa (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Venezia face Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Venezia and Genoa meet at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 February 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Venezia (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Genoa have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Genoa are 0.70 PPG clear of Venezia in recent Serie A fixtures (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 7 meetings, Genoa have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Venezia's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2026, ended 0–1 with Genoa winning.
It is worth noting that Genoa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Genoa — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 50% versus Genoa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 52% | Genoa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.92 xG and Genoa 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.627 / defence 1.129 | Genoa attack 0.758 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.503. Venezia's attack strength of 0.627 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Venezia games / 48 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 27% | Draw 28% | Genoa 45%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Genoa 2.22. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 40% | Genoa 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 27% | Draw 28% | Genoa 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Venezia 0.92 / Genoa 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.627 / def 1.129 | Genoa attack 0.758 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Genoa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Genoa xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Genoa kick off?
Venezia vs Genoa is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 7 February 2027 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
Where is Venezia vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Genoa part of?
Venezia vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 27% chance of winning, Genoa a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Venezia and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Genoa?
Record (7 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 2 | Genoa 4W.
What form are Venezia and Genoa in?
Venezia (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Genoa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Venezia's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.76x) against Venezia's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
27%
3.74
28%
3.52
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.21
1.29
Genoa xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
7%
13.54
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Venezia and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Venezia and 1.29 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia's recent record stands at 25W 10D 13L from 48 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 22L across 48 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Venezia by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 18W 0D 5L from 23 games — 2.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Genoa's away record stands at 5W 7D 11L across 23 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.06 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Genoa in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 25W 10D 13L in their last 48 games (1.77 PPG), while Genoa have gone 14W 12D 22L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Genoa away?
Venezia's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.35 PPG; Genoa away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Venezia or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Genoa in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Genoa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Venezia
2
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Genoa?
From 7 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Genoa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Genoa 1-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 35%, Genoa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Venezia) and 48% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Genoa in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Venezia's recent matches and 56% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Venezia's recent games and 48% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Genoa tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Genoa in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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