Udinese 2-2 Spezia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Udinese at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Spezia travel to Dacia Arena to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 February 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dacia Arena, Udinese have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Udinese are significantly better at Dacia Arena than their overall form suggests.
Spezia — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Spezia have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Udinese) versus 1.00 (Spezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Udinese, 1 for Spezia and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Udinese trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Spezia trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 62% versus Spezia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 54% | Spezia 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.53 xG and Spezia 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.042 / defence 1.099 | Spezia attack 0.861 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.170. Data: 61 Udinese games / 61 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 47% | Draw 25% | Spezia 27%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Spezia 3.70. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 80% | Spezia 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 47% | Draw 25% | Spezia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Udinese 1.53 / Spezia 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.042 / def 1.099 | Spezia attack 0.861 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Udinese (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Spezia xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Spezia kick off?
Udinese vs Spezia kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Spezia?
Udinese 2 - 2 Spezia.
Where is Udinese vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Spezia part of?
Udinese vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 47% chance of winning, Spezia a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Udinese and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Spezia?
Record (3 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 1 | Spezia 1W.
What form are Udinese and Spezia in?
Udinese (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Spezia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (1.04) and Spezia's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
47%
2.12
25%
3.93
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.64
1.11
Spezia xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.90
48%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
6%
16.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Udinese and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Udinese and 1.11 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese's recent record stands at 18W 23D 20L from 61 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spezia, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 34L across 61 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.26 PPG, Spezia on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 9W 13D 8L from 30 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spezia's away record stands at 7W 4D 19L across 30 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Udinese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.98 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Spezia in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 18W 23D 20L in their last 61 games (1.26 PPG), while Spezia have gone 14W 13D 34L in their last 61 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Spezia away?
Udinese's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.33 PPG; Spezia away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Spezia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Udinese's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Udinese
2
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Spezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Spezia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2023, when Udinese 2-2 Spezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 70%, Spezia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Udinese) and 60% (Spezia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spezia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Spezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Udinese's games and 47% of Spezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Udinese's matches and 60% of Spezia's.
Do Udinese and Spezia tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Spezia in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Spezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 24, as Udinese and Spezia drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.53 xG and Spezia 1.11 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Spezia outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against Spezia attack 0.86 / defence 1.15, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 47% | Draw 25% | Spezia 27%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 54%, Spezia 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.26 PPG, Spezia 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.