Udinese vs Sassuolo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Udinese and Sassuolo meet at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 May 2027 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Udinese's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Udinese's home record at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sassuolo (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sassuolo's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Udinese 2W, Sassuolo 2W, 4D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Sassuolo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 48% versus Sassuolo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 45% | Sassuolo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.22 xG and Sassuolo 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.942 / defence 0.893 | Sassuolo attack 0.938 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Udinese games / 40 Sassuolo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Udinese 40% | Draw 29% | Sassuolo 31%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Sassuolo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 20% | Sassuolo 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 40% | Draw 29% | Sassuolo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Udinese 1.22 / Sassuolo 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.942 / def 0.893 | Sassuolo attack 0.938 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Udinese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Sassuolo xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Sassuolo kick off?
Udinese vs Sassuolo is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 23 May 2027 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
Where is Udinese vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Sassuolo part of?
Udinese vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 40% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Udinese and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Sassuolo?
Record (8 meetings): Udinese 2W | Draws 4 | Sassuolo 2W.
What form are Udinese and Sassuolo in?
Udinese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.94x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (0.94x) against Udinese's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
40%
2.48
29%
3.50
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.25
1.03
Sassuolo xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
9%
10.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Udinese and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Udinese and 1.03 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese's recent record stands at 15W 9D 16L from 40 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sassuolo, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 18L across 40 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Udinese against 1.30 for Sassuolo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 6W 6D 8L from 20 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sassuolo's away record stands at 5W 5D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.23 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Sassuolo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 15W 7D 18L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Sassuolo away?
Udinese's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.20 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sassuolo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Udinese
4
Draws
2
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Sassuolo?
From 8 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Sassuolo have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Udinese 1-2 Sassuolo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 40%, Sassuolo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Udinese) and 55% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 35% of games; Sassuolo in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Udinese's recent matches and 60% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Udinese's recent games and 55% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.