Udinese 2-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sampdoria make the trip to Dacia Arena to face Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Udinese's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's home record at Dacia Arena: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sampdoria have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Udinese against 0.80 for Sampdoria. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Udinese 0W, Sampdoria 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 52% versus Sampdoria 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 44% | Sampdoria 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.55 xG and Sampdoria 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.959 / defence 1.219 | Sampdoria attack 0.611 / defence 1.405. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.374. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.405 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Udinese games / 27 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 47% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 22%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Sampdoria 4.55. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 60% | Sampdoria 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 47% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Udinese 1.55 / Sampdoria 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.959 / def 1.219 | Sampdoria attack 0.611 / def 1.405 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Udinese (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Sampdoria xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Sampdoria kick off?
Udinese vs Sampdoria kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Sampdoria?
Udinese 2 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Udinese vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Sampdoria part of?
Udinese vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 47% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Udinese and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Sampdoria?
Record (1 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 0W.
What form are Udinese and Sampdoria in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.96x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.61x) against Udinese's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 25/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
47%
2.14
31%
3.19
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.58
1.02
Sampdoria xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
5%
21.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Udinese and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Udinese and 1.02 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 5W 11D 9L record — D-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria's form line: 7W 4D 14L from 25 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Udinese against 1.00 for Sampdoria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.25 PPG from 12 outings (3W 6D 3L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 3W 1D 8L from 12 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Udinese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Udinese are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 5W 11D 9L in their last 25 games (1.04 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 7W 4D 14L in their last 25 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Sampdoria away?
Udinese's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.25 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Udinese have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Udinese
1
Draws
0
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Udinese have won 3, Sampdoria have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2023, when Udinese 2-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Sampdoria?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 58%, Sampdoria 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Udinese) and 58% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Udinese's recent matches and 42% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Udinese's recent games and 58% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Sampdoria 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Sampdoria 2-1 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.55 xG and Sampdoria 1.02 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.96 / defence 1.22 against Sampdoria attack 0.61 / defence 1.41, drawn from 25/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 47% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 22%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 44%, Sampdoria 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.04 PPG, Sampdoria 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.