Udinese 2-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Pisa travel to Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 January 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Pisa have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pisa have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Udinese carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Udinese register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Pisa in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Udinese, 0 for Pisa and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Udinese winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Pisa in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 54% versus Pisa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 49% | Pisa 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.56 xG and Pisa 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.934 / defence 1.108 | Pisa attack 0.948 / defence 1.448. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.184. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.448 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Udinese games / 19 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 45% | Draw 25% | Pisa 30%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Pisa 3.33. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 60% | Pisa 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Pisa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 45% | Draw 25% | Pisa 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Udinese 1.56 / Pisa 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.934 / def 1.108 | Pisa attack 0.948 / def 1.448 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Udinese (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Pisa xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Pisa kick off?
Udinese vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Pisa?
Udinese 2 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Udinese vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Pisa part of?
Udinese vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 45% chance of winning, Pisa a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Udinese and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 0 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Udinese and Pisa in?
Udinese (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Pisa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.93) and Pisa's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
45%
2.24
25%
4.01
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.80
1.25
Pisa xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
6%
15.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Udinese and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Udinese and 1.25 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Udinese come into this having played 57 games, going 19W 12D 26L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.51 PPG from 57 outings (23W 17D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.21 PPG, Pisa on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Udinese's home form reads 10W 6D 12L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.32 points per game from 28 outings (9W 10D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.32 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Pisa in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 19W 12D 26L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Pisa have gone 23W 17D 17L in their last 57 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.29 PPG; Pisa away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Udinese
1
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Pisa have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Udinese 2-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Pisa?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 46%, Pisa 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Udinese) and 50% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Udinese keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Udinese have failed to score in 29% of games; Pisa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Udinese's recent matches and 57% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Udinese's recent games and 50% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Pisa tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pisa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Pisa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese and Pisa finished level at 2-2 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.56 xG and Pisa 1.25 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Pisa attack 0.95 / defence 1.45, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 45% | Draw 25% | Pisa 30%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 49%, Pisa 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.21 PPG, Pisa 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.