Udinese 0-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 36 as Udinese welcome Lazio to Dacia Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 3W 6D 1L at Dacia Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Lazio have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Udinese at 1.40 PPG versus Lazio's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Udinese have won 0, Lazio 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Udinese trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lazio trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 58% versus Lazio 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 53% | Lazio 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.26 xG and Lazio 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.184 / defence 0.968 | Lazio attack 1.115 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.123. Data: 73 Udinese games / 73 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 37% | Draw 29% | Lazio 34%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Lazio 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 80% | Lazio 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 37% | Draw 29% | Lazio 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Udinese 1.26 / Lazio 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.184 / def 0.968 | Lazio attack 1.115 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Udinese (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Lazio xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Lazio kick off?
Udinese vs Lazio kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Lazio?
Udinese 0 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Udinese vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Lazio part of?
Udinese vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 37% chance of winning, Lazio a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Udinese and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Lazio?
Record (3 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 3 | Lazio 0W.
What form are Udinese and Lazio in?
Udinese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Lazio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (1.18) and Lazio's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
37%
2.72
29%
3.47
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.47
1.21
Lazio xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
10%
10.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.2 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Udinese and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Udinese and 1.21 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese's recent record stands at 22W 27D 24L from 73 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 37W 18D 18L across 73 games — 1.77 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lazio by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 12W 16D 8L from 36 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 17W 8D 11L across 36 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.79 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Lazio in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 22W 27D 24L in their last 73 games (1.27 PPG), while Lazio have gone 37W 18D 18L in their last 73 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.44 PPG; Lazio away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Udinese or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lazio in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Lazio runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Udinese's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
6
Draws
2
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Lazio have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Lazio 3-3 Udinese.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 69%, Lazio 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Udinese) and 61% (Lazio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lazio in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Lazio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Udinese's games and 44% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Udinese's matches and 61% of Lazio's.
Do Udinese and Lazio tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Lazio in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lazio defy the odds to beat Udinese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Udinese 0-1 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.26 xG and Lazio 1.21 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Udinese fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.18 / defence 0.97 against Lazio attack 1.11 / defence 0.81, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 37% | Draw 29% | Lazio 34%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Lazio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 53%, Lazio 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lazio's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Lazio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.