Udinese 1-2 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inter at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Inter fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Inter travel to Dacia Arena to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 May 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Udinese's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Dacia Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Udinese at 1.80 PPG versus Inter's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Udinese have won 0, Inter 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Inter winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Inter in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 59% versus Inter 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 53% | Inter 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.25 xG and Inter 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.218 / defence 1.162 | Inter attack 0.980 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.316. Data: 34 Udinese games / 34 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 31% | Draw 26% | Inter 42%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Inter 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 70% | Inter 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 31% | Draw 26% | Inter 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Udinese 1.25 / Inter 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.218 / def 1.162 | Inter attack 0.980 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Inter (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Inter xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Inter kick off?
Udinese vs Inter kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Inter?
Udinese 1 - 2 Inter.
Where is Udinese vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Inter part of?
Udinese vs Inter is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 31% chance of winning, Inter a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Udinese and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Inter?
Record (1 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 0 | Inter 1W.
What form are Udinese and Inter in?
Udinese (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Inter (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Udinese's attack at 1.22x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
31%
3.20
26%
3.79
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.75
1.50
Inter xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
7%
14.33
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Udinese and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Udinese and 1.50 for Inter, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 10W 13D 11L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Inter's form line: 21W 9D 4L from 34 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Venue Form
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (6W 7D 4L).
On the road, Inter have gone 9W 6D 2L from 17 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.12 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Inter
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Inter in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 10W 13D 11L in their last 34 games (1.26 PPG), while Inter have gone 21W 9D 4L in their last 34 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.47 PPG; Inter away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Udinese or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Inter in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting Inter specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
0
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Inter have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 65%, Inter 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Udinese) and 53% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Inter in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Udinese's games and 59% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Udinese's recent games and 53% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Inter tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Inter in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Udinese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Udinese 1-2 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.25 xG and Inter 1.50 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.22 / defence 1.16 against Inter attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 31% | Draw 26% | Inter 42%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 53%, Inter 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.