Udinese 2-3 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bluenergy Stadium plays host to Udinese versus Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Udinese have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 3W 3D 4L at Bluenergy Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Udinese are significantly better at Bluenergy Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Fiorentina (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fiorentina have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Fiorentina are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Udinese, 3 for Fiorentina and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with Udinese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 55% versus Fiorentina 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 43% | Fiorentina 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.03 xG and Fiorentina 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.794 / defence 1.172 | Fiorentina attack 1.044 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.143. Udinese's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 75 Udinese games / 75 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 27% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 45%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Fiorentina 2.22. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Udinese 40% | Fiorentina 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 27% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Udinese 1.03 / Fiorentina 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.794 / def 1.172 | Fiorentina attack 1.044 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Fiorentina xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Fiorentina kick off?
Udinese vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Udinese 2 - 3 Fiorentina.
Where is Udinese vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Fiorentina part of?
Udinese vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 27% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Udinese and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Fiorentina?
Record (7 meetings): Udinese 3W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 3W.
What form are Udinese and Fiorentina in?
Udinese (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Udinese's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Fiorentina's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (1.04x) against Udinese's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
27%
3.72
28%
3.52
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.43
1.40
Fiorentina xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
7%
15.07
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Udinese and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Udinese and 1.40 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Udinese's recent record stands at 18W 27D 30L from 75 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 35W 17D 23L across 75 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fiorentina by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 8W 14D 15L from 37 games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 13W 8D 16L across 37 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Udinese are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.57 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 18W 27D 30L in their last 75 games (1.08 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 35W 17D 23L in their last 75 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.03 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 27 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Udinese
1
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 4, Fiorentina have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Udinese 3-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 54%, Fiorentina 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Udinese) and 46% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 30% of games; Fiorentina in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Udinese's recent matches and 51% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Udinese's recent games and 46% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Udinese 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Udinese 2-3 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.03 xG and Fiorentina 1.40 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fiorentina outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.79 / defence 1.17 against Fiorentina attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 27% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 45%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 43%, Fiorentina 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.