Udinese 2-2 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Udinese take on Atalanta.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Atalanta at Dacia Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 5W 2D 3L at Dacia Arena — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dacia Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atalanta stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Udinese at 2.20 PPG versus Atalanta's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Udinese, 1 for Atalanta and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2022, ended 2–6 with Atalanta winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Udinese trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Atalanta trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 61% versus Atalanta 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 59% | Atalanta 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.04 xG and Atalanta 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.220 / defence 0.788 | Atalanta attack 1.115 / defence 0.628. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.131. Atalanta's defence strength of 0.628 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Udinese's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Udinese games / 46 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 33% | Draw 36% | Atalanta 31%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | Atalanta 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 60% | Atalanta 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 33% | Draw 36% | Atalanta 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Udinese 1.04 / Atalanta 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.220 / def 0.788 | Atalanta attack 1.115 / def 0.628 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Atalanta xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Atalanta kick off?
Udinese vs Atalanta kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Atalanta?
Udinese 2 - 2 Atalanta.
Where is Udinese vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Atalanta part of?
Udinese vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 33% chance of winning, Atalanta a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Udinese and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Atalanta?
Record (2 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 1 | Atalanta 1W.
What form are Udinese and Atalanta in?
Udinese (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Atalanta (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (1.22) and Atalanta's defence rating (0.63), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
36%
2.76
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.04
0.99
Atalanta xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Udinese and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Udinese and 0.99 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese's recent record stands at 17W 15D 14L from 46 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 11L across 46 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.43 PPG, Atalanta on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 9W 8D 6L from 23 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atalanta's away record stands at 16W 3D 4L across 23 trips, a 2.22 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.72 PPG overall record — Atalanta travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.67 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 17W 15D 14L in their last 46 games (1.43 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 22W 13D 11L in their last 46 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.52 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Udinese or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Atalanta in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Atalanta runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Atalanta won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
6
Draws
3
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Atalanta have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Atalanta 2-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 61%, Atalanta 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Udinese) and 48% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Atalanta in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Udinese's recent matches and 48% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Udinese's recent games and 48% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Atalanta tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Atalanta share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 9, as Udinese and Atalanta drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.04 xG and Atalanta 0.99 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atalanta outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.22 / defence 0.79 against Atalanta attack 1.11 / defence 0.63, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 33% | Draw 36% | Atalanta 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 59%, Atalanta 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.43 PPG, Atalanta 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atalanta (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.