Torino 3-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Torino at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Torino vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino plays host to Torino versus Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 22 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Torino have collected 1.00 PPG across 8 Serie A outings this season: 2W 2D 4L. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino's home record at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 3D 4L from 8 games (0.75 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.25. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Genoa have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Torino, 0.75 for Genoa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Torino 50% and Genoa 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 38% | Genoa 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.55 xG and Genoa 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.903 / defence 1.000 | Genoa attack 0.806 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.457. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Torino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Torino games / 8 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 46% | Draw 25% | Genoa 29%. Fair-value odds: Torino 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Genoa 3.45. Torino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Torino as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Torino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Torino 50% | Genoa 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 46% | Draw 25% | Genoa 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Torino 1.55 / Genoa 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.903 / def 1.000 | Genoa attack 0.806 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Torino (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Genoa xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Genoa kick off?
Torino vs Genoa kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Genoa?
Torino 3 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Torino vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Genoa part of?
Torino vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 46% chance of winning, Genoa a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Torino and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Torino and Genoa in?
Torino (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Genoa (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Torino's attack at 0.90x the league average against Genoa's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.81x) against Torino's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
46%
2.17
25%
3.98
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Torino xG
Total xG
2.73
1.17
Genoa xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
6%
16.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Torino and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Torino and 1.17 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Torino come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 2D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Torino against 0.75 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Torino's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Torino are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.50 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genoa in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Genoa in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while Genoa have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Genoa away?
Torino's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.00 PPG; Genoa away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won 3-0 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Torino have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Torino
3
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Torino have won 3, Genoa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Genoa 3-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Genoa?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Torino see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 50%, Genoa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Torino and 75% for Genoa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genoa in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Torino's recent matches and 50% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Torino's matches and 75% of Genoa's.
Prediction vindicated as Torino edge out Genoa 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Genoa 3-2 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.55 xG and Genoa 1.17 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Torino beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genoa outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Genoa attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 46% | Draw 25% | Genoa 29%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 38%, Genoa 88%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.00 PPG, Genoa 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock. Torino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.