Torino 0-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Torino vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino to take on Torino. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Torino have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fiorentina — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fiorentina have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fiorentina are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Torino have won 2, Fiorentina 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Torino trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fiorentina trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 38% versus Fiorentina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 38% | Fiorentina 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.00 xG and Fiorentina 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.916 / defence 0.839 | Fiorentina attack 1.234 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.334. Fiorentina's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fiorentina have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Torino games / 48 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 27% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 45%. Fair-value odds: Torino 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Fiorentina 2.22. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Torino 30% | Fiorentina 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 27% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Torino 1.00 / Fiorentina 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.916 / def 0.839 | Fiorentina attack 1.234 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Fiorentina xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Fiorentina kick off?
Torino vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Fiorentina?
Torino 0 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Torino vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Fiorentina part of?
Torino vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 27% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Torino and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Fiorentina?
Record (6 meetings): Torino 2W | Draws 2 | Fiorentina 2W.
What form are Torino and Fiorentina in?
Torino (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Torino vs Fiorentina?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Torino's attack at 0.92x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
27%
3.74
28%
3.58
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Torino xG
Total xG
2.38
1.38
Fiorentina xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
7%
14.85
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Torino and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Torino and 1.38 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Torino have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 17W 16D 15L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina's form line: 22W 13D 13L from 48 games, 1.65 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Torino on 1.40 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.74 PPG from 23 outings (10W 10D 3L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 8W 6D 9L from 23 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Torino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Torino are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.71 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Torino have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 17W 16D 15L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 22W 13D 13L in their last 48 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Fiorentina away?
Torino's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.74 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Torino or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Jan 2022, when Torino won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Torino's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Torino
5
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 2, Fiorentina have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fiorentina 2-2 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Torino see a goal before the break in 30% of their matches.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Torino 26% BTTS, Fiorentina 44%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Torino and 35% for Fiorentina.
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Fiorentina in 30%; Torino have failed to score in 44% of games; Fiorentina in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Torino's recent matches and 44% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Torino's recent games and 35% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 30% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Torino 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Torino 0-1 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.00 xG and Fiorentina 1.38 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Torino fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.92 / defence 0.84 against Fiorentina attack 1.23 / defence 0.77, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 27% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 45%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 38%, Fiorentina 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fiorentina's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.40 PPG, Fiorentina 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.