Torino 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Torino vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Olimpico di Torino to take on Torino. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 December 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Torino — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico di Torino this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Torino 1.00 PPG, Cremonese 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Torino, 0 for Cremonese and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Torino in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cremonese in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 48% versus Cremonese 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 36% | Cremonese 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.27 xG and Cremonese 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.990 / defence 1.459 | Cremonese attack 1.081 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.117. Data: 52 Torino games / 14 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 27% | Draw 24% | Cremonese 49%. Fair-value odds: Torino 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Cremonese 2.04. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Torino 50% | Cremonese 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico di Torino • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 27% | Draw 24% | Cremonese 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Torino 1.27 / Cremonese 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.990 / def 1.459 | Cremonese attack 1.081 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Cremonese xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Cremonese kick off?
Torino vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Cremonese?
Torino 1 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Torino vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Cremonese part of?
Torino vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 27% chance of winning, Cremonese a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Torino and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Torino 1W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Torino and Cremonese in?
Torino (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Torino's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
27%
3.68
24%
4.12
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Torino xG
Total xG
3.03
1.76
Cremonese xG
3.68
27%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
5%
21.38
14%
7.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Torino and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Torino and 1.76 for Cremonese, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Torino have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 13W 19D 20L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese's form line: 21W 19D 12L from 52 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Torino.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.27 PPG from 26 outings (8W 9D 9L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 12W 7D 7L from 26 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Torino are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.58 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese in 67%.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 13W 19D 20L in their last 52 games (1.12 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 21W 19D 12L in their last 52 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.27 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Torino and Cremonese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Torino's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Torino
2
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Torino have won 2, Cremonese have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Cremonese 0-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Cremonese?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 46%, Cremonese 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Torino) and 62% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Torino have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Torino's recent matches and 62% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Torino's recent games and 62% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Cremonese tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Torino defy the odds to beat Cremonese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Cremonese 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.27 xG and Cremonese 1.76 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.99 / defence 1.46 against Cremonese attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 27% | Draw 24% | Cremonese 49%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Torino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 36%, Cremonese 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Torino winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Torino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.