Torino 0-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Torino take on Bologna.

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Fixture Analysis

Torino welcome Bologna to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Serie A (matchday 35). Kick-off is Friday 3 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.

Form Guide

Torino — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Torino's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Torino are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Bologna have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Bologna have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Bologna's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Torino's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Torino, 2 for Bologna and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 27 Nov 2023, ended Torino 0–2 Bologna — a Bologna win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Torino in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Bologna in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 40% versus Bologna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Torino 31% | Bologna 49%). Note also that Bologna surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Torino recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 0.76 xG and Bologna 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.679 / defence 0.605 | Bologna attack 1.098 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.172. Torino's attack rating of 0.679 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Torino have a tight defence (rating 0.605), which is pulling Bologna's projected output down. Data: built from Torino's last 72 games and Bologna's last 72.

Result probabilities: Torino 31% | Draw 38% | Bologna 32%. Fair-value odds: Torino 3.27 | Draw 2.64 | Bologna 3.16. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS Yes probability 30% | Total xG 1.54. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.54 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Torino's lower xG of 0.76 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.54 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Torino's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Torino 10% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 70% (last 10 away games).

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