Torino 0-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Torino face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico di Torino plays host to Torino versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 18 January 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Torino have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino at Stadio Olimpico di Torino this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AS Roma (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, AS Roma are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
AS Roma hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Torino winning.
It is worth noting that AS Roma have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Torino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 47% versus AS Roma 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Torino 38% | AS Roma 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 0.89 xG and AS Roma 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.937 / defence 1.353 | AS Roma attack 0.953 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.155. Data: 58 Torino games / 58 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 22% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 51%. Fair-value odds: Torino 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | AS Roma 1.96. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Torino 60% | AS Roma 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico di Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 22% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Torino 0.89 / AS Roma 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.937 / def 1.353 | AS Roma attack 0.953 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.49
AS Roma xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs AS Roma kick off?
Torino vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs AS Roma?
Torino 0 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Torino vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
What competition is Torino vs AS Roma part of?
Torino vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 22% chance of winning, AS Roma a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Torino and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and AS Roma?
Record (9 meetings): Torino 1W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 6W.
What form are Torino and AS Roma in?
Torino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Torino's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.95x) against Torino's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
22%
4.46
26%
3.81
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Torino xG
Total xG
2.38
1.49
AS Roma xG
4.46
22%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
5%
19.77
21%
4.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.8 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Torino and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Torino and 1.49 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Torino have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 16W 19D 23L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma's form line: 33W 9D 16L from 58 games, 1.86 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Torino.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.24 PPG from 29 outings (9W 9D 11L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 13W 7D 9L from 29 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Torino are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.38 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 16W 19D 23L in their last 58 games (1.16 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 33W 9D 16L in their last 58 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.24 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Torino or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, AS Roma in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 0-3 on 20 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Torino have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Torino
2
Draws
7
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 1, AS Roma have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Torino 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Torino and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 48%, AS Roma 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Torino and 28% for AS Roma.
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; AS Roma in 41%; Torino have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Torino's recent matches and 41% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Torino's recent games and 28% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and AS Roma tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Torino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Torino 0-2 at Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 0.89 xG and AS Roma 1.49 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Torino fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.94 / defence 1.35 against AS Roma attack 0.95 / defence 0.81, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 22% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 51%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 38%, AS Roma 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AS Roma's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.