Spezia 1-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Alberto Picco to take on Spezia. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 8 November 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spezia stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Udinese's 1.90 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Spezia's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Spezia register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Udinese in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Spezia, 1 for Udinese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 3–2 with Spezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Spezia in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Udinese in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 55% versus Udinese 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 61% | Udinese 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.18 xG and Udinese 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.035 / defence 1.263 | Udinese attack 1.030 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.177. Data: 51 Spezia games / 51 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 28% | Draw 27% | Udinese 45%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Udinese 2.22. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 80% | Udinese 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 28% | Draw 27% | Udinese 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Spezia 1.18 / Udinese 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.035 / def 1.263 | Udinese attack 1.030 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Udinese (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Udinese xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Udinese kick off?
Spezia vs Udinese kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Udinese?
Spezia 1 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Spezia vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Udinese part of?
Spezia vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 28% chance of winning, Udinese a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Spezia and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Udinese?
Record (2 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 0 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Spezia and Udinese in?
Spezia (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Udinese (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Spezia's attack rating (1.03) and Udinese's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
28%
3.51
27%
3.74
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.71
1.53
Udinese xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
6%
16.23
14%
7.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Spezia and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Spezia and 1.53 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Spezia have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 12W 9D 30L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese's form line: 17W 19D 15L from 51 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-D. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Udinese are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spezia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.08 PPG from 25 outings (7W 6D 12L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 8W 9D 8L from 25 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.61 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Udinese in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 12W 9D 30L in their last 51 games (0.88 PPG), while Udinese have gone 17W 19D 15L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.08 PPG; Udinese away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Spezia's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spezia
2
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Udinese?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Udinese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2023, when Udinese 2-2 Spezia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 64%, Udinese 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Spezia and 60% for Udinese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Spezia's games and 56% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Spezia's matches and 60% of Udinese's.
Do Spezia and Udinese tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Udinese in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Udinese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia and Udinese finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.18 xG and Udinese 1.53 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.03 / defence 1.26 against Udinese attack 1.03 / defence 0.84, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 28% | Draw 27% | Udinese 45%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 61%, Udinese 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Udinese arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.