Spezia 1-3 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inter at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Inter fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Spezia and Inter meet at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Spezia's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Alberto Picco, Spezia have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Inter have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Inter have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Inter arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Spezia lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Inter winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Spezia half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 27% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Inter half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 52% versus Inter 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 52% | Inter 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.71 xG and Inter 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.816 / defence 1.018 | Inter attack 0.935 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.242. Data: 32 Spezia games / 31 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 20% | Draw 35% | Inter 45%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 5.00 | Draw 2.86 | Inter 2.22. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inter if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 40% | Inter 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 20% | Draw 35% | Inter 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Spezia 0.71 / Inter 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.816 / def 1.018 | Inter attack 0.935 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Inter (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Inter xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Inter kick off?
Spezia vs Inter kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Inter?
Spezia 1 - 3 Inter.
Where is Spezia vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Inter part of?
Spezia vs Inter is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 20% chance of winning, Inter a 45% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Spezia and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Inter?
Record (1 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 0 | Inter 1W.
What form are Spezia and Inter in?
Spezia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Inter (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Spezia's attack at 0.82x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inter's attack (0.94x) against Spezia's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
20%
4.93
35%
2.89
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Spezia xG
Total xG
1.89
1.18
Inter xG
4.93
20%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
6%
16.06
22%
4.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 17.8 | 10.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Spezia and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Spezia and 1.18 for Inter, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Spezia have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 9W 5D 17L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Inter's form line: 19W 9D 3L from 31 games, 2.13 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spezia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
On the road, Inter have gone 8W 6D 1L from 15 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Spezia are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.10 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Inter
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Inter in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 9W 5D 17L in their last 31 games (1.03 PPG), while Inter have gone 19W 9D 3L in their last 31 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.20 PPG; Inter away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Spezia or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Inter in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spezia
0
Draws
3
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Inter?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Inter have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2023, when Spezia 2-1 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spezia tend to start slowly — only 27% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 53%, Inter 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Spezia) and 47% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Inter in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Spezia's recent matches and 53% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Spezia's recent games and 47% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Inter tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 27% of their recent matches, Inter in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Spezia 1-3 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.71 xG and Inter 1.18 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Inter outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Inter attack 0.94 / defence 0.83, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 20% | Draw 35% | Inter 45%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 52%, Inter 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.