Spezia 1-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 25 as Spezia welcome Fiorentina to Stadio Alberto Picco. Kick-off is set for Monday 14 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spezia stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's home record at Stadio Alberto Picco: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spezia 1.50 PPG, Fiorentina 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Spezia, 1 for Fiorentina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Spezia in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 27% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 56% versus Fiorentina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Spezia 56% | Fiorentina 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.19 xG and Fiorentina 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.795 / defence 1.069 | Fiorentina attack 0.672 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.432. Spezia's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fiorentina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Spezia games / 23 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 37% | Draw 35% | Fiorentina 28%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Fiorentina 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Spezia 70% | Fiorentina 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Monday 14 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 37% | Draw 35% | Fiorentina 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Spezia 1.19 / Fiorentina 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.795 / def 1.069 | Fiorentina attack 0.672 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Spezia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Fiorentina xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Fiorentina kick off?
Spezia vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 14 February 2022 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Fiorentina?
Spezia 1 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is Spezia vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Fiorentina part of?
Spezia vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 37% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Spezia and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Fiorentina?
Record (1 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are Spezia and Fiorentina in?
Spezia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.80) and Fiorentina's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
37%
2.73
35%
2.87
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.22
1.03
Fiorentina xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Spezia and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Spezia and 1.03 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spezia come into this having played 23 games, going 7W 4D 12L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (11W 3D 9L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Spezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Spezia's home form reads 3W 3D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.27 points per game from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.78 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 7W 4D 12L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 11W 3D 9L in their last 23 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.09 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Fiorentina won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spezia's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Spezia
1
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Fiorentina?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 0, Fiorentina have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Fiorentina 1-1 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia tend to start slowly — only 27% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Fiorentina see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 64%, Fiorentina 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Spezia) and 46% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Spezia's games and 54% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Spezia's recent games and 46% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 27% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Spezia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Spezia 1-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.19 xG and Fiorentina 1.03 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.80 / defence 1.07 against Fiorentina attack 0.67 / defence 1.32, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 37% | Draw 35% | Fiorentina 28%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 56%, Fiorentina 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.