Sassuolo 0-1 Torino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 4 as Sassuolo welcome Torino to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: W D L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Torino — All Games: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Torino have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sassuolo 1.33 PPG, Torino 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sassuolo register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Torino in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Torino in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sassuolo 67% and Torino 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sassuolo 67% | Torino 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.18 xG and Torino 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.771 / defence 0.994 | Torino attack 0.811 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.369. Sassuolo's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Torino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Sassuolo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Sassuolo games / 3 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 38% | Draw 28% | Torino 34%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Torino 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sassuolo at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sassuolo 67% | Torino 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 38% | Draw 28% | Torino 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Sassuolo 1.18 / Torino 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.771 / def 0.994 | Torino attack 0.811 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Torino xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Torino kick off?
Sassuolo vs Torino kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 September 2021 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Torino?
Sassuolo 0 - 1 Torino.
Where is Sassuolo vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Torino part of?
Sassuolo vs Torino is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 38% chance of winning, Torino a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sassuolo and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Torino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sassuolo and Torino in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-D-L. Torino (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sassuolo's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
38%
2.66
28%
3.51
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.28
1.10
Torino xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.10 for Torino, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sassuolo's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Torino, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 2L across 3 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Torino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sassuolo on 1.33 PPG, Torino on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Sassuolo are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 2.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Torino in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Early Season
Torino
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Torino in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Torino have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Sassuolo or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Torino in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Torino have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Sassuolo's record when hosting Torino specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sassuolo
3
Draws
4
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Torino?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 1, Torino have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Torino 2-1 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sassuolo at 67%, Torino at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sassuolo and 100% for Torino. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sassuolo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Torino in 33%; Sassuolo have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Torino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sassuolo's games and 67% of Torino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sassuolo's matches and 100% of Torino's.
Do Sassuolo and Torino tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Torino in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Torino defy the odds to beat Sassuolo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Sassuolo 0-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.18 xG and Torino 1.10 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sassuolo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.77 / defence 0.99 against Torino attack 0.81 / defence 1.22, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 38% | Draw 28% | Torino 34%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Torino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 67%, Torino 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Torino's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.33 PPG, Torino 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Torino managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.