Sassuolo 1-2 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sassuolo host Monza at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Sassuolo — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 5W 2D 3L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monza stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sassuolo 1.40 PPG, Monza 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sassuolo have won 0, Monza 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sassuolo trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Monza trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 66% versus Monza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 67% | Monza 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.20 xG and Monza 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.984 / defence 0.955 | Monza attack 1.013 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.104. Data: 73 Sassuolo games / 35 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 39% | Draw 29% | Monza 32%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Monza 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sassuolo 50% | Monza 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 39% | Draw 29% | Monza 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Sassuolo 1.20 / Monza 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.984 / def 0.955 | Monza attack 1.013 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Monza xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Monza kick off?
Sassuolo vs Monza kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 May 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Monza?
Sassuolo 1 - 2 Monza.
Where is Sassuolo vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Monza part of?
Sassuolo vs Monza is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 39% chance of winning, Monza a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sassuolo and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Sassuolo 0W | Draws 1 | Monza 0W.
What form are Sassuolo and Monza in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Monza (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sassuolo's attack rating (0.98) and Monza's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
39%
2.59
29%
3.41
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.27
1.07
Monza xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.07 for Monza, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sassuolo come into this having played 73 games, going 25W 19D 29L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.67 PPG from 73 outings (35W 17D 21L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sassuolo on 1.29 PPG, Monza on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sassuolo's home form reads 14W 10D 12L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.42 points per game from 36 outings (14W 9D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sassuolo are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.52 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Monza in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 25W 19D 29L in their last 73 games (1.29 PPG), while Monza have gone 35W 17D 21L in their last 73 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Monza away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.44 PPG; Monza away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Monza in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Monza go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sassuolo's record when hosting Monza specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sassuolo
1
Draws
3
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 0, Monza have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Monza 1-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 64%, Monza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Sassuolo) and 47% (Monza).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sassuolo's games and 50% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Sassuolo's recent games and 47% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Monza tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Monza in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monza defy the odds to beat Sassuolo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Sassuolo 1-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.20 xG and Monza 1.07 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Monza outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.98 / defence 0.95 against Monza attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 39% | Draw 29% | Monza 32%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Monza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 67%, Monza 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.29 PPG, Monza 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.