Sassuolo 0-2 Cagliari – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sassuolo face Cagliari.

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Analysis

Cagliari make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Sassuolo in Serie A (matchday 37). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Form

Sassuolo (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Sassuolo have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Cagliari have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Cagliari's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Sassuolo, 1.30 for Cagliari — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Cagliari edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Dec 2023, ended Sassuolo 1–2 Cagliari — a Cagliari win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Sassuolo — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 62%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Cagliari — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 58% versus Cagliari 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 58% | Cagliari 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sassuolo surrender their half-time lead 62% of the time, while Cagliari have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.91 xG and Cagliari 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.949 / defence 1.292 | Cagliari attack 0.710 / defence 1.470. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.194. Cagliari's defence rating of 1.470 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sassuolo's projected output up. Cagliari's attack rating of 0.710 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Sassuolo's defence rating of 1.292 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cagliari's projected output up. Data: built from Sassuolo's last 74 games and Cagliari's last 36.

Result probabilities: Sassuolo 55% | Draw 24% | Cagliari 20%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 1.81 | Draw 4.12 | Cagliari 4.89. The model has a clear lean to Sassuolo (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sassuolo are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sassuolo's last 10 home games and Cagliari's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sassuolo 60% (last 10 home games) | Cagliari 50% (last 10 away games).

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