Sampdoria 0-0 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sampdoria and Juventus meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Monday 22 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Sampdoria (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Juventus have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juventus have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juventus's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Juventus arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sampdoria 0W, Juventus 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 1–3 with Juventus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 51% versus Juventus 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 59% | Juventus 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.28 xG and Juventus 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.938 / defence 1.109 | Juventus attack 1.072 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.196. Data: 39 Sampdoria games / 39 Juventus games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 32% | Draw 29% | Juventus 39%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Juventus 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventus at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 50% | Juventus 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Monday 22 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 32% | Draw 29% | Juventus 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Sampdoria 1.28 / Juventus 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.938 / def 1.109 | Juventus attack 1.072 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Juventus (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Juventus xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Juventus kick off?
Sampdoria vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 22 August 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Juventus?
Sampdoria 0 - 0 Juventus.
Where is Sampdoria vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Juventus part of?
Sampdoria vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 32% chance of winning, Juventus a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sampdoria and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Juventus?
Record (2 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 0 | Juventus 2W.
What form are Sampdoria and Juventus in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Juventus (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.94) and Juventus's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (1.07x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
32%
3.08
29%
3.51
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.70
1.42
Juventus xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.76
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.42 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sampdoria come into this having played 39 games, going 10W 6D 23L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Juventus sit at 1.87 PPG from 39 outings (21W 10D 8L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Juventus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juventus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sampdoria's home form reads 6W 3D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventus have taken 1.84 points per game from 19 outings (10W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sampdoria are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.54 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Juventus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Juventus in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 10W 6D 23L in their last 39 games (0.92 PPG), while Juventus have gone 21W 10D 8L in their last 39 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.11 PPG; Juventus away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Juventus in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
1
Draws
3
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Juventus?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Juventus have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Juventus 4-2 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Sampdoria, 68% for Juventus — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Sampdoria and 53% for Juventus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Juventus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Sampdoria's games and 68% of Juventus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Sampdoria's matches and 53% of Juventus's.
Do Sampdoria and Juventus tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Juventus in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sampdoria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria and Juventus finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.28 xG and Juventus 1.42 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Juventus landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Juventus attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 32% | Draw 29% | Juventus 39%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 59%, Juventus 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Juventus's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.