Sampdoria 2-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Empoli at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sampdoria 0.80 PPG, Empoli 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sampdoria, 0 for Empoli and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 3–0 with Sampdoria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Empoli trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sampdoria 60% and Empoli 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sampdoria 68% | Empoli 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.39 xG and Empoli 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 1.108 / defence 1.284 | Empoli attack 0.849 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.444. Data: 25 Sampdoria games / 25 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 31% | Draw 30% | Empoli 39%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Empoli 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 90% | Empoli 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 31% | Draw 30% | Empoli 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Sampdoria 1.39 / Empoli 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 1.108 / def 1.284 | Empoli attack 0.849 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Empoli (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Empoli xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Empoli kick off?
Sampdoria vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Sampdoria 2 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Sampdoria vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Empoli part of?
Sampdoria vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 31% chance of winning, Empoli a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sampdoria and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 0 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Sampdoria and Empoli in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Empoli (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (1.11) and Empoli's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
31%
3.21
30%
3.39
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.96
1.58
Empoli xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
6%
15.54
10%
10.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.58 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 6W 5D 14L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli's form line: 8W 7D 10L from 25 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 0.92 PPG, Empoli on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.00 PPG from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 5W 5D 2L from 12 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.24 PPG overall record — Empoli travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.52 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Empoli in 72%.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Empoli in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 6W 5D 14L in their last 25 games (0.92 PPG), while Empoli have gone 8W 7D 10L in their last 25 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Empoli away?
Empoli's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.00 PPG; Empoli away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Empoli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2021, when Sampdoria won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sampdoria's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sampdoria
2
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 3, Empoli have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Empoli?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sampdoria at 83%, Empoli at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 92% for Sampdoria and 42% for Empoli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Empoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Sampdoria's games and 58% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 92% of Sampdoria's matches and 42% of Empoli's.
Do Sampdoria and Empoli tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Empoli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Empoli 2-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.39 xG and Empoli 1.58 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Empoli landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 1.11 / defence 1.28 against Empoli attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 31% | Draw 30% | Empoli 39%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sampdoria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 68%, Empoli 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Empoli's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 0.92 PPG, Empoli 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.