Sampdoria 1-2 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sampdoria at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cagliari make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Sampdoria in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Thursday 6 January 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Sampdoria (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cagliari's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 6L across 9 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Sampdoria. A 0.70 PPG lead over Cagliari (1.10 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sampdoria 0W, Cagliari 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with Cagliari winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Cagliari — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sampdoria 68% and Cagliari 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sampdoria 74% | Cagliari 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.61 xG and Cagliari 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.939 / defence 1.399 | Cagliari attack 0.522 / defence 1.467. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.469. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.467 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Sampdoria games / 19 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 50% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 25%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Cagliari 4.00. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 80% | Cagliari 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Jan 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 50% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Sampdoria 1.61 / Cagliari 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.939 / def 1.399 | Cagliari attack 0.522 / def 1.467 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Cagliari xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Cagliari kick off?
Sampdoria vs Cagliari kicked off at 11:30 on Thursday 6 January 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Cagliari?
Sampdoria 1 - 2 Cagliari.
Where is Sampdoria vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Cagliari part of?
Sampdoria vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 50% chance of winning, Cagliari a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sampdoria and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Cagliari?
Record (1 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 0 | Cagliari 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Cagliari in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Cagliari (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.94) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.52x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.03
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.69
1.07
Cagliari xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
5%
19.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.07 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 5W 5D 9L from 19 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 1W 7D 11L across 19 games — 0.53 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sampdoria by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 2W 3D 4L from 9 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 0W 3D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 0.89 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 5W 5D 9L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 1W 7D 11L in their last 19 (0.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Cagliari away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.00 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
0
Draws
2
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Cagliari?
From 2 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Cagliari have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2022, when Sampdoria 1-2 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 89%, Cagliari 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 89% for Sampdoria and 56% for Cagliari. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of Sampdoria's games and 33% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 89% of Sampdoria's matches and 56% of Cagliari's.
Do Sampdoria and Cagliari tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Sampdoria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Sampdoria 1-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.61 xG and Cagliari 1.07 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cagliari outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.94 / defence 1.40 against Cagliari attack 0.52 / defence 1.47, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 50% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 25%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Cagliari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 74%, Cagliari 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sampdoria arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.53. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.