Parma 1-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Parma at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Parma face Venezia.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Venezia make the trip to Stadio Ennio Tardini to face Parma in Serie A (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time.

Form

Parma (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Parma have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Venezia's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.

When travelling, Venezia have posted 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Parma, 0.60 for Venezia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Parma, 1 for Venezia and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended Parma 2–1 Venezia — a Parma win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Parma 66% and Venezia 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 55% | Venezia 64%). Note also that Venezia surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Parma recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.75 xG and Venezia 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.057 / defence 1.318 | Venezia attack 0.716 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.302. Venezia's defence rating of 1.265 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Parma's projected output up. Venezia's attack rating of 0.716 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Parma's defence rating of 1.318 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Venezia's projected output up. Data: built from Parma's last 20 games and Venezia's last 20.

Result probabilities: Parma 48% | Draw 27% | Venezia 25%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.08 | Draw 3.76 | Venezia 3.94. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.75 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Parma's last 10 home games and Venezia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Parma 90% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights