Parma 0-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Parma welcome Udinese to Stadio Ennio Tardini. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Udinese — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Parma) versus 1.10 (Udinese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Parma, 2 for Udinese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Udinese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Udinese in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 62% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 52% | Udinese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.44 xG and Udinese 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.976 / defence 1.075 | Udinese attack 0.910 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.123. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Parma games / 50 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 43% | Draw 29% | Udinese 27%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Udinese 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Parma 50% | Udinese 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 43% | Draw 29% | Udinese 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Parma 1.44 / Udinese 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.976 / def 1.075 | Udinese attack 0.910 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Parma (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Udinese xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Udinese kick off?
Parma vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Udinese?
Parma 0 - 2 Udinese.
Where is Parma vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Udinese part of?
Parma vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 43% chance of winning, Udinese a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Parma and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Udinese?
Record (2 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 0 | Udinese 2W.
What form are Parma and Udinese in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Udinese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Parma's attack at 0.98x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
43%
2.30
29%
3.41
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Parma xG
Total xG
2.54
1.10
Udinese xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
6%
15.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Parma and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Parma and 1.10 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Parma have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 9W 20D 21L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese's form line: 16W 11D 23L from 50 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 0.94 PPG, Udinese on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.08 PPG from 25 outings (6W 9D 10L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 7W 6D 12L from 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.06 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Udinese in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 9W 20D 21L in their last 50 games (0.94 PPG), while Udinese have gone 16W 11D 23L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Udinese away?
Parma's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.08 PPG; Udinese away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Parma's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Parma
0
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Udinese?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Udinese have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Parma at 68%, Udinese at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Parma) and 48% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Udinese in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Parma's games and 64% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Parma's recent games and 48% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Udinese tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Udinese in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Parma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Parma 0-2 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.44 xG and Udinese 1.10 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Parma fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Udinese outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against Udinese attack 0.91 / defence 1.24, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 43% | Draw 29% | Udinese 27%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Udinese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 52%, Udinese 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Udinese's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 0.94 PPG, Udinese 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.