Parma 2-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bologna at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Bologna encounter.

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Match Analysis

Parma host Bologna at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 22 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Parma have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Parma at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bologna stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bologna's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bologna — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Parma's games and 60% of Bologna's (from Parma's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Parma, 0 for Bologna and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended Parma 0–0 Bologna — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Parma trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Bologna trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 68% versus Bologna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 56% | Bologna 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.11 xG and Bologna 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.846 / defence 1.366 | Bologna attack 1.057 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.270. Parma's defence rating of 1.366 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bologna's projected output up. Data: built from Parma's last 25 games and Bologna's last 62.

Result probabilities: Parma 21% | Draw 27% | Bologna 52%. Fair-value odds: Parma 4.85 | Draw 3.68 | Bologna 1.91. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Parma's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Parma 80% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 60% (last 10 away games).

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