Parma vs AS Roma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Parma face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ennio Tardini plays host to Parma versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 22 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Parma have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
AS Roma (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, AS Roma are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to AS Roma, who have claimed 4 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 2–3 with AS Roma winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AS Roma have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Parma 38% | AS Roma 32%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Parma 28% | AS Roma 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.90 xG and AS Roma 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.839 / defence 0.984 | AS Roma attack 1.364 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. AS Roma have an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Parma games / 40 AS Roma games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Parma 20% | Draw 24% | AS Roma 55%. Fair-value odds: Parma 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | AS Roma 1.82. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Parma 50% | AS Roma 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 20% | Draw 24% | AS Roma 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Parma 0.90 / AS Roma 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.839 / def 0.984 | AS Roma attack 1.364 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.66
AS Roma xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs AS Roma kick off?
Parma vs AS Roma is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Where is Parma vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs AS Roma part of?
Parma vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 20% chance of winning, AS Roma a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Parma and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and AS Roma?
Record (4 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 4W.
What form are Parma and AS Roma in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.84) and AS Roma's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.36x) against Parma's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
20%
4.94
24%
4.09
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Parma xG
Total xG
2.55
1.66
AS Roma xG
4.94
20%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
4%
25.83
23%
4.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.9 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Parma and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Parma and 1.66 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs AS Roma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Parma come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 12D 17L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.98 PPG from 40 outings (25W 4D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Parma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Parma's home form reads 5W 6D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.70 points per game from 20 outings (11W 1D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.68 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 25W 4D 11L in their last 40 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.05 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Parma or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, AS Roma in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 5-0 on 22 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Parma
0
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and AS Roma?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 0, AS Roma have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Parma and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Parma 2-3 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 45%, AS Roma 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Parma) and 45% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 40%; Parma have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Parma's recent matches and 40% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Parma's recent games and 45% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and AS Roma tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.