Napoli 4-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Napoli face Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Udinese make the trip to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona to face Napoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Napoli (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Napoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Udinese have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Udinese have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Napoli. A 1.20 PPG lead over Udinese (1.80 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Napoli have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Udinese in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Napoli have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Udinese managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Napoli and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Napoli — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Udinese — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 44% versus Udinese 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 51% | Udinese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.31 xG and Udinese 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.001 / defence 0.907 | Udinese attack 0.756 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.118. Data: 43 Napoli games / 43 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 49% | Draw 30% | Udinese 21%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Udinese 4.76. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Napoli 30% | Udinese 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 49% | Draw 30% | Udinese 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Napoli 1.31 / Udinese 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.001 / def 0.907 | Udinese attack 0.756 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Napoli (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Udinese xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Udinese kick off?
Napoli vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Udinese?
Napoli 4 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Napoli vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Udinese part of?
Napoli vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 49% chance of winning, Udinese a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Napoli and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Udinese?
Record (4 meetings): Napoli 3W | Draws 1 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Napoli and Udinese in?
Napoli (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Udinese (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Napoli's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.76x) against Napoli's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
49%
2.05
30%
3.32
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.07
0.77
Udinese xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
6%
17.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Napoli and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Napoli and 0.77 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Napoli come into this having played 43 games, going 30W 8D 5L for 2.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Napoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.14 PPG from 43 outings (11W 16D 16L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Napoli's home form reads 15W 3D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (5W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Napoli are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.12 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Udinese in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 30W 8D 5L in their last 43 games (2.28 PPG), while Udinese have gone 11W 16D 16L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Udinese away?
Napoli's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.29 PPG; Udinese away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Napoli or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Udinese in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 0-4 on 20 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Napoli have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Napoli
3
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Napoli have won 6, Udinese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Napoli 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Udinese?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Napoli see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 43%, Udinese 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Napoli) and 43% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Udinese in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Napoli's recent matches and 43% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Napoli's recent games and 43% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Napoli run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Udinese 4-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.31 xG and Udinese 0.77 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Napoli beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.00 / defence 0.91 against Udinese attack 0.76 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 49% | Draw 30% | Udinese 21%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 51%, Udinese 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm. Udinese (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.