Napoli 2-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Napoli at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Napoli vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 3 as Napoli welcome Parma to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Napoli — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Napoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Napoli's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Parma's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Napoli) versus 1.50 (Parma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Napoli register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Parma in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Napoli in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Parma in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 55% versus Parma 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 58% | Parma 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.76 xG and Parma 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.126 / defence 0.943 | Parma attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.096. Data: 40 Napoli games / 2 Parma games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Napoli 56% | Draw 28% | Parma 16%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Parma 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Napoli 60% | Parma 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 56% | Draw 28% | Parma 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Napoli 1.76 / Parma 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.126 / def 0.943 | Parma attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Napoli (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Parma xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Parma kick off?
Napoli vs Parma kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Parma?
Napoli 2 - 1 Parma.
Where is Napoli vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Parma part of?
Napoli vs Parma is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 56% chance of winning, Parma a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Napoli and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Parma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Napoli and Parma in?
Napoli (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Parma (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Napoli's attack at 1.13x the league average against Parma's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
56%
1.79
28%
3.59
16%
6.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.64
0.88
Parma xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
6.15
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
3%
35.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.1 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Napoli and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Napoli and 0.88 for Parma, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Parma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Napoli have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 14W 14D 12L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Napoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Parma's form line: 22W 14D 4L from 40 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Parma are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Napoli.
Venue Form
On home soil, Napoli have posted 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
On the road, Parma have gone 10W 6D 3L from 19 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Napoli are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.72 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Parma in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 14W 14D 12L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while Parma have gone 22W 14D 4L in their last 40 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 1.32 PPG; Parma away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Napoli or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Parma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Napoli's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Napoli
3
Draws
0
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Napoli have won 1, Parma have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Parma 1-1 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Parma?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Napoli see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 63%, Parma 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Napoli and 58% for Parma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Parma in 37%; Napoli have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Napoli's games and 58% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Napoli vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Napoli's matches and 58% of Parma's.
Do Napoli and Parma tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Parma in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Parma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Parma 2-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.76 xG and Parma 0.88 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.13 / defence 0.94 against Parma attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 56% | Draw 28% | Parma 16%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 58%, Parma 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with Napoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Parma (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.