Napoli 1-1 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Inter travel to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona to take on Napoli. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Napoli stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Inter — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Inter — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Napoli, 1 for Inter and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–3 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Napoli trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Inter trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 39% versus Inter 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 48% | Inter 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.08 xG and Inter 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.131 / defence 0.875 | Inter attack 1.027 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.457. Data: 24 Napoli games / 23 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 28% | Draw 32% | Inter 40%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Inter 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Napoli 30% | Inter 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 28% | Draw 32% | Inter 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Napoli 1.08 / Inter 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.131 / def 0.875 | Inter attack 1.027 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Inter (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Inter xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Inter kick off?
Napoli vs Inter kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Inter?
Napoli 1 - 1 Inter.
Where is Napoli vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Inter part of?
Napoli vs Inter is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 28% chance of winning, Inter a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Napoli and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Inter?
Record (1 meetings): Napoli 0W | Draws 0 | Inter 1W.
What form are Napoli and Inter in?
Napoli (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Inter (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Napoli's attack at 1.13x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
28%
3.53
32%
3.12
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.38
1.31
Inter xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
8%
13.08
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Napoli and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Napoli and 1.31 for Inter, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Napoli's recent record stands at 15W 4D 4L from 23 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter, meanwhile, have gone 16W 5D 2L across 23 games — 2.30 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Napoli on 2.13 PPG, Inter on 2.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Napoli have managed 7W 1D 3L from 11 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Inter's away record stands at 7W 3D 1L across 11 trips, a 2.18 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Napoli are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.35 scored and 0.83 conceded. Napoli's scoring rate against Inter's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games; Inter in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Inter in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 15W 4D 4L in their last 23 games (2.13 PPG), while Inter have gone 16W 5D 2L in their last 23 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.00 PPG; Inter away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Napoli or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Inter in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Napoli and Inter runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Inter won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Napoli's record when hosting Inter specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Napoli
5
Draws
3
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Napoli have won 2, Inter have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Inter 2-2 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 36%, Inter 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Napoli) and 64% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Inter in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Napoli's recent matches and 54% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Napoli's recent games and 64% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Inter tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Inter in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Napoli and Inter share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli and Inter finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.08 xG and Inter 1.31 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.13 / defence 0.88 against Inter attack 1.03 / defence 0.84, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 28% | Draw 32% | Inter 40%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 48%, Inter 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Napoli 2.13 PPG, Inter 2.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.