Napoli 1-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona plays host to Napoli versus Hellas Verona in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Napoli have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this season: 5W 0D 0L from 5 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hellas Verona (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 2L across 5 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Napoli. A 1.30 PPG lead over Hellas Verona (2.80 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Napoli half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 73% of the time.
Hellas Verona half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 73%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 27% versus Hellas Verona 82%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Napoli 54% | Hellas Verona 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.92 xG and Hellas Verona 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.093 / defence 0.781 | Hellas Verona attack 0.925 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.371. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.363 — this is suppressing Napoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Napoli's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 11 Napoli games / 11 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 59% | Draw 22% | Hellas Verona 19%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Hellas Verona 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Napoli 20% | Hellas Verona 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 59% | Draw 22% | Hellas Verona 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Napoli 1.92 / Hellas Verona 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.093 / def 0.781 | Hellas Verona attack 0.925 / def 1.363 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Napoli (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Hellas Verona xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Napoli vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Hellas Verona?
Napoli 1 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Napoli vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Hellas Verona part of?
Napoli vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 59% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Napoli and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Hellas Verona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Napoli and Hellas Verona in?
Napoli (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Napoli's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.93x) against Napoli's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.56
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.91
0.99
Hellas Verona xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
3%
35.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Napoli and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Napoli and 0.99 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Hellas Verona?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Napoli have picked up 2.82 PPG on a 10W 1D 0L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona's form line: 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 1.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Napoli have posted 3.00 PPG from 5 outings (5W 0D 0L).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hellas Verona's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Napoli are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 0.27 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 2.18 scored and 1.82 conceded. Hellas Verona's attacking output running into Napoli's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Napoli have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games; Hellas Verona in 82%.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 73% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 10W 1D 0L in their last 11 games (2.82 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Hellas Verona away?
Napoli's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 3.00 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Napoli or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 73% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 2-5 on 15 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Napoli have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Napoli
3
Draws
1
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, Napoli have won 6, Hellas Verona have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Hellas Verona 1-2 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Hellas Verona?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 20%, Hellas Verona 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Napoli) and 60% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Napoli's recent matches and 80% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Napoli's recent games and 60% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Napoli and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli and Hellas Verona finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.92 xG and Hellas Verona 0.99 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Napoli fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.09 / defence 0.78 against Hellas Verona attack 0.93 / defence 1.36, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 59% | Draw 22% | Hellas Verona 19%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 54%, Hellas Verona 82%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 73% of the time, and conceded here.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.82 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.