Monza 1-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monza vs Sassuolo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 19 as Monza welcome Sassuolo to U-Power Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Monza — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Monza have posted 5W 1D 4L at U-Power Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Monza carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Monza in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Sassuolo in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 52% versus Sassuolo 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 55% | Sassuolo 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.62 xG and Sassuolo 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.954 / defence 1.054 | Sassuolo attack 0.794 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.130. Data: 18 Monza games / 56 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 53% | Draw 25% | Sassuolo 22%. Fair-value odds: Monza 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Sassuolo 4.55. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Monza 50% | Sassuolo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 53% | Draw 25% | Sassuolo 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Monza 1.62 / Sassuolo 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.954 / def 1.054 | Sassuolo attack 0.794 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Monza (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sassuolo xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Sassuolo kick off?
Monza vs Sassuolo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Sassuolo?
Monza 1 - 1 Sassuolo.
Where is Monza vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Sassuolo part of?
Monza vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 53% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Monza and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Sassuolo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monza and Sassuolo in?
Monza (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Sassuolo (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Monza's attack at 0.95x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.04
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Monza xG
Total xG
2.57
0.95
Sassuolo xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
4%
23.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Monza and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Monza and 0.95 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monza come into this having played 56 games, going 28W 10D 18L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sassuolo sit at 1.18 PPG from 56 outings (17W 15D 24L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Monza's home form reads 18W 4D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Sassuolo have taken 1.11 points per game from 28 outings (8W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Monza are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.45 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo in 68%.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 28W 10D 18L in their last 56 games (1.68 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 17W 15D 24L in their last 56 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Sassuolo away?
Monza's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.07 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Monza or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monza and Sassuolo runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Monza have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Monza's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Monza
1
Draws
0
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Sassuolo?
From 4 meetings on record, Monza have won 3, Sassuolo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Monza 1-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Sassuolo?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 50%, Sassuolo 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Monza and 79% for Sassuolo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Monza's games and 68% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monza vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Monza's matches and 79% of Sassuolo's.
Do Monza and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza and Sassuolo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza and Sassuolo finished level at 1-1 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.62 xG and Sassuolo 0.95 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against Sassuolo attack 0.79 / defence 1.19, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 53% | Draw 25% | Sassuolo 22%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 55%, Sassuolo 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sassuolo's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Monza (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Sassuolo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.