Monza 2-2 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monza vs Sampdoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Sampdoria travel to U-Power Stadium to take on Monza. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 February 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monza stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at U-Power Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Sampdoria have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Sampdoria have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Monza are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Monza, 0 for Sampdoria and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 3–0 with Monza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Monza in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 52% versus Sampdoria 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 53% | Sampdoria 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.39 xG and Sampdoria 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.921 / defence 1.019 | Sampdoria attack 0.725 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.173. Data: 20 Monza games / 58 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 49% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 23%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Sampdoria 4.35. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Monza 50% | Sampdoria 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 49% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Monza 1.39 / Sampdoria 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.921 / def 1.019 | Sampdoria attack 0.725 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Monza (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Sampdoria xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Sampdoria kick off?
Monza vs Sampdoria kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 6 February 2023 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Sampdoria?
Monza 2 - 2 Sampdoria.
Where is Monza vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Sampdoria part of?
Monza vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 49% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Monza and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Sampdoria?
Record (1 meetings): Monza 1W | Draws 0 | Sampdoria 0W.
What form are Monza and Sampdoria in?
Monza (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Monza's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.65
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Monza xG
Total xG
2.26
0.87
Sampdoria xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
6%
17.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Monza and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Monza and 0.87 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Monza have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 29W 11D 18L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria's form line: 12W 9D 37L from 58 games, 0.78 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Monza are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
Venue Form
On home soil, Monza have posted 2.03 PPG from 29 outings (18W 5D 6L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 6W 4D 19L from 29 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Monza are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.93 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 29W 11D 18L in their last 58 games (1.69 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 12W 9D 37L in their last 58 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Sampdoria away?
Monza's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.03 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Monza or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Monza have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when Monza won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Monza's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Monza
1
Draws
0
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Monza have won 3, Sampdoria have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Sampdoria 0-3 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Sampdoria?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 52%, Sampdoria 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Monza) and 48% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Sampdoria in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Monza's recent matches and 38% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Monza's recent games and 48% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza and Sampdoria finished level at 2-2 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.39 xG and Sampdoria 0.87 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sampdoria outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against Sampdoria attack 0.72 / defence 1.10, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 49% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 23%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 53%, Sampdoria 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sampdoria's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Monza (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.