Monza vs Bologna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bologna (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Monza face Bologna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Bologna travel to to take on Monza. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2027, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Monza — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza at this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Monza are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bologna are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bologna have the better historical record — 4 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Monza.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2026, ended 1–2 with Bologna winning.
It is worth noting that Bologna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Monza trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Bologna trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 58% versus Bologna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 58% | Bologna 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.35 xG and Bologna 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.105 / defence 1.310 | Bologna attack 1.132 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.464. Bologna's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 Monza games / 48 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 23% | Draw 20% | Bologna 56%. Fair-value odds: Monza 4.35 | Draw 5.00 | Bologna 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.52 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Monza 60% | Bologna 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 23% | Draw 20% | Bologna 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Monza 1.35 / Bologna 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.105 / def 1.310 | Bologna attack 1.132 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Bologna (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Monza xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Bologna xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Bologna kick off?
Monza vs Bologna is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 March 2027.
What competition is Monza vs Bologna part of?
Monza vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 23% chance of winning, Bologna a 56% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Monza and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Bologna?
Record (7 meetings): Monza 1W | Draws 2 | Bologna 4W.
What form are Monza and Bologna in?
Monza (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Monza's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 2.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
23%
4.27
20%
4.88
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
0 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Monza xG
Total xG
3.52
2.17
Bologna xG
4.27
23%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
11%
8.76
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
3%
37.36
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Monza and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Monza and 2.17 for Bologna, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Bologna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monza's recent record stands at 24W 11D 13L from 48 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 18L across 48 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monza on 1.73 PPG, Bologna on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Monza have managed 15W 4D 4L from 23 games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 13W 4D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.87 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.46 PPG overall record — Bologna travel well.
The Goals Picture
Monza are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.31 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Bologna in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 24W 11D 13L in their last 48 games (1.73 PPG), while Bologna have gone 20W 10D 18L in their last 48 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Bologna away?
Monza's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.13 PPG; Bologna away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Monza or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bologna in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monza and Bologna runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bologna have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Monza's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Monza
2
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Bologna?
From 7 meetings on record, Monza have won 1, Bologna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Bologna 2-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 56%, Bologna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Monza) and 52% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Monza's games and 56% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monza vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Monza's matches and 52% of Bologna's.
Do Monza and Bologna tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bologna in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.