Monza 1-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 36%, yet in-form Bologna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Monza vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bologna travel to U-Power Stadium to take on Monza in Serie A (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Monza — last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Monza at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Bologna have recorded 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bologna's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bologna are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Monza, 1 for Bologna and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended Monza 0–0 Bologna — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Monza trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bologna trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 45% versus Bologna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 38% | Bologna 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Monza surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Bologna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 58% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.30 xG and Bologna 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.831 / defence 1.028 | Bologna attack 0.958 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.161. Data: built from Monza's last 42 games and Bologna's last 42.
Result probabilities: Monza 36% | Draw 35% | Bologna 29%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.75 | Draw 2.89 | Bologna 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bologna (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Monza 60% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, matchday 5 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 36% | Draw 35% | Bologna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Monza 1.30 / Bologna 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.831 / def 1.028 | Bologna attack 0.958 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Monza (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Bologna xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Monza vs Bologna FAQs
What time does Monza vs Bologna kick off?
Monza vs Bologna kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 22 September 2024 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Bologna?
Monza 1 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Monza vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Bologna part of?
Monza vs Bologna is a Serie A fixture (matchday 5) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 36% chance of winning, Bologna a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Monza and Bologna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Monza vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Monza's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Monza's last 42 games and Bologna's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
36%
2.75
35%
2.89
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Monza xG
Total xG
2.44
1.14
Bologna xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
8%
12.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Monza vs Bologna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Monza and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Monza and 1.14 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monza's recent record stands at 11W 15D 16L from 42 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 7L across 42 games — 1.69 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Monza heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Monza have managed 6W 7D 8L from their last 21 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 6W 10D 5L across their last 21 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Monza are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.38 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
Monza (Home) vs Bologna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Monza
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Monza vs Bologna Form FAQs
What form are Monza and Bologna in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 11W 15D 16L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while Bologna have gone 18W 17D 7L in their last 42 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.19 PPG; Bologna away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Monza or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bologna in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bologna have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Monza's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Monza
2
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Monza vs Bologna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Bologna?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Monza have won 1, Bologna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Bologna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Bologna 2-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 52%, Bologna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Monza) and 52% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bologna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Monza vs Bologna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Monza and Bologna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Monza's recent matches and 57% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Monza and Bologna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Monza's recent games and 52% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Bologna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Monza's recent matches and 71% of Bologna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Monza 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Monza 1-2 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.30 xG and Bologna 1.14 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.83 / defence 1.03 against Bologna attack 0.96 / defence 1.13, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 36% | Draw 35% | Bologna 29%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 38%, Bologna 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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