Lazio 1-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lazio face Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lazio host Udinese at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 28). Kick-off is Monday 10 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lazio stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lazio at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Udinese have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Udinese's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lazio 1.60 PPG, Udinese 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Lazio's last 10 home games and Udinese's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Lazio have won 2, Udinese 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Lazio 1–2 Udinese — a Udinese win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lazio in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Udinese in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 57% versus Udinese 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 54% | Udinese 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.84 xG and Udinese 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.320 / defence 1.120 | Udinese attack 0.898 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.245. Lazio carry an above-average attack rating of 1.320 — their 1.84 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Lazio's last 65 games and Udinese's last 65.
Result probabilities: Lazio 50% | Draw 26% | Udinese 24%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.02 | Draw 3.84 | Udinese 4.11. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.84 / 1.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lazio's last 10 home games and Udinese's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lazio 70% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Monday 10 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 50% | Draw 26% | Udinese 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Lazio 1.84 / Udinese 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.320 / def 1.120 | Udinese attack 0.898 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Lazio (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Udinese xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lazio vs Udinese FAQs
What time does Lazio vs Udinese kick off?
Lazio vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 10 March 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Udinese?
Lazio 1 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Lazio vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Udinese part of?
Lazio vs Udinese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 50% chance of winning, Udinese a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lazio and Udinese will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lazio vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lazio's attack at 1.32x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lazio's last 65 games and Udinese's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
50%
2.02
26%
3.84
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Lazio xG
Total xG
3.09
1.25
Udinese xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
4%
25.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lazio vs Udinese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Lazio and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Lazio and 1.25 for Udinese, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lazio come into this having played 65 games, going 33W 12D 20L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.17 PPG from 65 outings (17W 25D 23L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Lazio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lazio's home form reads 17W 8D 7L across their last 32 home games, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.22 points per game from their last 32 away games (9W 12D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lazio are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.09 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Udinese
Blended
Lazio (Home) vs Udinese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lazio
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Lazio vs Udinese Form FAQs
What form are Lazio and Udinese in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 33W 12D 20L in their last 65 games (1.71 PPG), while Udinese have gone 17W 25D 23L in their last 65 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Udinese away?
Lazio's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.84 PPG; Udinese away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Lazio's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lazio
5
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Lazio vs Udinese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Udinese?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lazio have won 3, Udinese have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Udinese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Udinese 1-2 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Udinese?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 53%, Udinese 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lazio) and 38% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Udinese in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lazio vs Udinese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lazio and Udinese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Lazio's recent matches and 56% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lazio and Udinese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lazio's recent games and 38% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Udinese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Lazio's recent matches and 69% of Udinese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio and Udinese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 28, as Lazio and Udinese drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.84 xG and Udinese 1.25 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lazio fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.32 / defence 1.12 against Udinese attack 0.90 / defence 1.07, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 50% | Draw 26% | Udinese 24%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 54%, Udinese 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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