Lazio 1-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lazio at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lazio vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on Lazio. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 January 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lazio stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lazio at 1.70 PPG versus Fiorentina's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Lazio hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Fiorentina, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2022, ended 4–0 with Lazio winning.
The historical record gives Lazio a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lazio trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Fiorentina trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 54% versus Fiorentina 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 70% | Fiorentina 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.76 xG and Fiorentina 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.276 / defence 0.886 | Fiorentina attack 0.838 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.193. Lazio carry an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Lazio games / 57 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 58% | Draw 23% | Fiorentina 19%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Fiorentina 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Lazio (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lazio are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lazio 50% | Fiorentina 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 58% | Draw 23% | Fiorentina 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Lazio 1.76 / Fiorentina 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.276 / def 0.886 | Fiorentina attack 0.838 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Lazio (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Fiorentina xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Fiorentina kick off?
Lazio vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Fiorentina?
Lazio 1 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Lazio vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Fiorentina part of?
Lazio vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 58% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lazio and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Fiorentina?
Record (3 meetings): Lazio 3W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 0W.
What form are Lazio and Fiorentina in?
Lazio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lazio's attack at 1.28x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.30
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.65
0.89
Fiorentina xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
3%
31.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Lazio and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Lazio and 0.89 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Fiorentina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lazio's recent record stands at 29W 14D 14L from 57 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 22L across 57 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lazio on 1.77 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lazio have managed 15W 8D 5L from 28 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 8W 5D 15L across 28 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fiorentina's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lazio are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.40 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 29W 14D 14L in their last 57 games (1.77 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 25W 10D 22L in their last 57 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Fiorentina away?
Lazio's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.89 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Lazio or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Oct 2022, when Lazio won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lazio's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lazio
2
Draws
4
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 4, Fiorentina have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Fiorentina 1-0 Lazio.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 57%, Fiorentina 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Lazio) and 50% (Fiorentina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Fiorentina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Lazio's games and 61% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Lazio's matches and 50% of Fiorentina's.
Do Lazio and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio and Fiorentina finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.76 xG and Fiorentina 0.89 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.28 / defence 0.89 against Fiorentina attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 58% | Draw 23% | Fiorentina 19%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 70%, Fiorentina 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.77 PPG, Fiorentina 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.