Lazio 2-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Lazio at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lazio vs Empoli encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Lazio and Empoli meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Lazio's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Lazio at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Empoli (all games): 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Empoli's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record in our data favours Lazio, who have won 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against Empoli — Empoli have 0 wins, with 2 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2024, ended Lazio 2–0 Empoli — a Lazio win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Lazio and goals — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

Lazio — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).

Empoli — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 57% versus Empoli 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lazio 48% | Empoli 30%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.39 xG and Empoli 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.146 / defence 0.958 | Empoli attack 1.019 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.265. Data: built from Lazio's last 44 games and Empoli's last 44.

Result probabilities: Lazio 37% | Draw 33% | Empoli 30%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.70 | Draw 3.04 | Empoli 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Lazio 4 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lazio 60% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 40% (last 10 away games).

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