Lazio 0-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lazio at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lazio vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 16 as Lazio welcome Cremonese to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 December 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Lazio have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Lazio have won 2, Cremonese 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2023, ended 3–2 with Lazio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lazio trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Cremonese trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 49% versus Cremonese 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 49% | Cremonese 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.50 xG and Cremonese 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.192 / defence 0.847 | Cremonese attack 0.921 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.105. Data: 53 Lazio games / 15 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 52% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 22%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Cremonese 4.55. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Lazio 40% | Cremonese 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 52% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Lazio 1.50 / Cremonese 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.192 / def 0.847 | Cremonese attack 0.921 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Lazio (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Cremonese xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Cremonese kick off?
Lazio vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Cremonese?
Lazio 0 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Lazio vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Cremonese part of?
Lazio vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 52% chance of winning, Cremonese a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lazio and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Lazio 2W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Lazio and Cremonese in?
Lazio (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lazio's attack at 1.19x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.82
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.36
0.86
Cremonese xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
5%
20.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Lazio and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Lazio and 0.86 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lazio's recent record stands at 24W 15D 14L from 53 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 13L across 53 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lazio on 1.64 PPG, Cremonese on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lazio have managed 11W 11D 4L from 26 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 11W 7D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lazio are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.55 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese in 66%.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 24W 15D 14L in their last 53 games (1.64 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 21W 19D 13L in their last 53 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Cremonese away?
Lazio's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.69 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Lazio or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cremonese in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lazio and Cremonese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Lazio won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lazio's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Lazio
1
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Lazio have won 3, Cremonese have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Cremonese 1-2 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Cremonese?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 65%, Cremonese 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lazio) and 58% (Cremonese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Lazio's games and 58% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Lazio's matches and 58% of Cremonese's.
Do Lazio and Cremonese tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lazio's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio and Cremonese finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.50 xG and Cremonese 0.86 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lazio fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Cremonese landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.19 / defence 0.85 against Cremonese attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 52% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 22%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 49%, Cremonese 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cremonese's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.64 PPG, Cremonese 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.