Juventus 2-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Juventus at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventus vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Udinese make the trip to Allianz Stadium to face Juventus in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juventus have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juventus have posted 5W 2D 3L at Allianz Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Allianz Stadium this season.
Udinese's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Udinese have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Juventus. A 1.30 PPG lead over Udinese (2.30 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Juventus, 0 for Udinese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 53% versus Udinese 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 32% | Udinese 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.34 xG and Udinese 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 0.879 / defence 0.767 | Udinese attack 0.948 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.574. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Juventus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Juventus's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 21 Juventus games / 19 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 41% | Draw 27% | Udinese 32%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Udinese 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Juventus 40% | Udinese 56%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 41% | Draw 27% | Udinese 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Juventus 1.34 / Udinese 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 0.879 / def 0.767 | Udinese attack 0.948 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.574 • Poisson stance: Juventus (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Udinese xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Udinese kick off?
Juventus vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Udinese?
Juventus 2 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Juventus vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Udinese part of?
Juventus vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 41% chance of winning, Udinese a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Juventus and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Udinese?
Record (1 meetings): Juventus 0W | Draws 1 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Juventus and Udinese in?
Juventus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Juventus's attack at 0.88x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.95x) against Juventus's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 21/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.71
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.49
1.15
Udinese xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Juventus and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Juventus and 1.15 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Juventus have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 11W 4D 4L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese's form line: 4W 8D 7L from 19 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Juventus are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Juventus have posted 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventus are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.47 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Udinese in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 11W 4D 4L in their last 19 games (1.95 PPG), while Udinese have gone 4W 8D 7L in their last 19 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Udinese away?
Juventus's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 1.89 PPG; Udinese away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Juventus or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Udinese in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Juventus have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 0-3 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventus have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Juventus
1
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 8, Udinese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Udinese?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 44%, Udinese 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Juventus) and 56% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Juventus's recent matches and 56% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Juventus's recent games and 56% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Udinese tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Udinese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Udinese 2-0 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.34 xG and Udinese 1.15 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Udinese landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 0.88 / defence 0.77 against Udinese attack 0.95 / defence 1.30, drawn from 21/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 41% | Draw 27% | Udinese 32%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 32%, Udinese 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Udinese's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.