Juventus 0-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventus vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 14 as Juventus welcome Atalanta to Allianz Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventus stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Stadium, Juventus have gone 3W 1D 2L this season (6 games, 1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's away record: 5W 1D 0L from 6 road trips in Serie A this season (2.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.67 exceeds their overall 2.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Juventus) versus 2.10 (Atalanta). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Juventus trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Atalanta trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Juventus 62% and Atalanta 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 46% | Atalanta 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.03 xG and Atalanta 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 0.818 / defence 0.946 | Atalanta attack 1.128 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.395. Data: 13 Juventus games / 13 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 26% | Draw 26% | Atalanta 48%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Atalanta 2.08. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Juventus 50% | Atalanta 83% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 26% | Draw 26% | Atalanta 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Juventus 1.03 / Atalanta 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 0.818 / def 0.946 | Atalanta attack 1.128 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Atalanta xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Atalanta kick off?
Juventus vs Atalanta kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Atalanta?
Juventus 0 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is Juventus vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Atalanta part of?
Juventus vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 26% chance of winning, Atalanta a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Juventus and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Atalanta?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventus and Atalanta in?
Juventus (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Atalanta (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juventus's attack at 0.82x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
26%
3.80
26%
3.84
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.52
1.49
Atalanta xG
3.80
26%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
6%
16.82
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Juventus and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Juventus and 1.49 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Juventus have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 6W 3D 4L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta's form line: 7W 4D 2L from 13 games, 1.92 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventus on 1.62 PPG, Atalanta on 1.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Juventus have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
On the road, Atalanta have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 away games — 2.67 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.92 PPG overall record — Atalanta travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventus are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 2.08 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventus have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Atalanta in 85%.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 1.67 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.67 PPG.
Have Juventus or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Atalanta in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2025, when Atalanta won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventus's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Juventus
6
Draws
2
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 2, Atalanta have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Atalanta 0-1 Juventus.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Juventus at 50%, Atalanta at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Juventus) and 83% (Atalanta). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Atalanta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Juventus's games and 83% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juventus vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Juventus's matches and 83% of Atalanta's.
Do Juventus and Atalanta tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Juventus 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Juventus 0-1 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.03 xG and Atalanta 1.49 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Juventus fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against Atalanta attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 26% | Draw 26% | Atalanta 48%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 46%, Atalanta 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Atalanta's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventus 1.62 PPG, Atalanta 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.