Inter 1-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Inter (76%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Inter face Hellas Verona.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Inter host Hellas Verona at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Inter have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Inter are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Hellas Verona's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Inter have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Inter: 8 wins from 9 previous clashes against 0 for Hellas Verona, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Inter winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Inter and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Inter trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Hellas Verona trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 46% versus Hellas Verona 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 55% | Hellas Verona 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 2.56 xG and Hellas Verona 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.707 / defence 0.854 | Hellas Verona attack 0.803 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.144. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.707 — their λ of 2.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Inter's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Inter games / 74 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 76% | Draw 15% | Hellas Verona 9%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.32 | Draw 6.67 | Hellas Verona 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Inter (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Inter 60% | Hellas Verona 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 76% | Draw 15% | Hellas Verona 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 50% | xG Inter 2.56 / Hellas Verona 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.707 / def 0.854 | Hellas Verona attack 0.803 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Inter (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Inter xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Hellas Verona xG
50%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Inter vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Hellas Verona?
Inter 1 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Inter vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Hellas Verona part of?
Inter vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 76% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 9% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Inter and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Hellas Verona?
Record (9 meetings): Inter 8W | Draws 1 | Hellas Verona 0W.
What form are Inter and Hellas Verona in?
Inter (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Inter's attack rating (1.71) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Inter's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
76%
1.32
15%
6.57
9%
10.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Inter xG
Total xG
3.34
0.78
Hellas Verona xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.57
15%
Draw
10.91
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
8%
12.90
Win to Nil
35%
2.90
1%
140.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Inter and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Inter and 0.78 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Hellas Verona?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Inter come into this having played 74 games, going 51W 13D 10L for 2.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 0.77 PPG from 74 outings (13W 18D 43L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.47 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Inter's home form reads 27W 6D 4L across 37 games on their own ground, a 2.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 0.86 points per game from 37 outings (8W 8D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Inter are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.78 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Current Season
Hellas Verona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 51W 13D 10L in their last 74 games (2.24 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 13W 18D 43L in their last 74 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Hellas Verona away?
Inter's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.35 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Inter or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2023, when Inter won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Inter
2
Draws
0
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 8, Hellas Verona have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Inter 1-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Hellas Verona?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 57%, Hellas Verona 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Inter) and 49% (Hellas Verona). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Hellas Verona in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Inter's recent matches and 49% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Inter's matches and 49% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Inter and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter and Hellas Verona finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 2.56 xG and Hellas Verona 0.78 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Inter fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.71 / defence 0.85 against Hellas Verona attack 0.80 / defence 1.22, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 76% | Draw 15% | Hellas Verona 9%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 55%, Hellas Verona 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.