Inter 3-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inter vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Inter host Bologna at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Inter — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Inter are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Inter have won 3, Bologna 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Inter in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Bologna in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 46% versus Bologna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 57% | Bologna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.71 xG and Bologna 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.570 / defence 0.779 | Bologna attack 1.262 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.109. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.570 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bologna have an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — the away xG of 1.09 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Inter's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Inter games / 54 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 52% | Draw 24% | Bologna 24%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Bologna 4.17. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Inter 40% | Bologna 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 52% | Draw 24% | Bologna 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Inter 1.71 / Bologna 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.570 / def 0.779 | Bologna attack 1.262 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Inter (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Inter xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Bologna xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Bologna kick off?
Inter vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 4 January 2026 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Bologna?
Inter 3 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Inter vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Bologna part of?
Inter vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 52% chance of winning, Bologna a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Inter and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Bologna?
Record (8 meetings): Inter 3W | Draws 2 | Bologna 3W.
What form are Inter and Bologna in?
Inter (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Bologna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Inter's attack rating (1.57) and Bologna's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Inter's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.18
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Inter xG
Total xG
2.80
1.09
Bologna xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
4%
22.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Inter and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Inter and 1.09 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Inter have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 36W 9D 9L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 23W 19D 12L from 54 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bologna.
Venue Form
On home soil, Inter have posted 2.26 PPG from 27 outings (19W 4D 4L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 9W 10D 8L from 27 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Inter are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.50 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Bologna in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 36W 9D 9L in their last 54 games (2.17 PPG), while Bologna have gone 23W 19D 12L in their last 54 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Bologna away?
Inter's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.26 PPG; Bologna away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Inter or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Bologna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Inter won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Inter
3
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 4, Bologna have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Bologna 3-3 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Bologna?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 56%, Bologna 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Inter and 56% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Bologna in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Inter's recent matches and 52% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Inter's matches and 56% of Bologna's.
Do Inter and Bologna tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bologna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Bologna 3-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.71 xG and Bologna 1.09 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Inter beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.57 / defence 0.78 against Bologna attack 1.26 / defence 0.93, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 52% | Draw 24% | Bologna 24%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 57%, Bologna 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.63. That form edge translated into the three points. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.