Inter 5-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Inter face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza plays host to Inter versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Inter's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Inter's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
AS Roma (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Inter's 2.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of AS Roma's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, Inter are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 2, with 0 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Inter winning.
The historical record gives Inter a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Inter — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
AS Roma — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 46% versus AS Roma 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 53% | AS Roma 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.81 xG and AS Roma 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.553 / defence 0.883 | AS Roma attack 0.980 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.180. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.553 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 68 Inter games / 68 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 56% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 21%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | AS Roma 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Inter (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Inter 50% | AS Roma 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 56% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Inter 1.81 / AS Roma 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.553 / def 0.883 | AS Roma attack 0.980 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Inter (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Inter xG
Expected Goals
1.02
AS Roma xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs AS Roma kick off?
Inter vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs AS Roma?
Inter 5 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Inter vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs AS Roma part of?
Inter vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 56% chance of winning, AS Roma a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Inter and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and AS Roma?
Record (9 meetings): Inter 7W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Inter and AS Roma in?
Inter (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. AS Roma (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Inter's attacking strength (1.55x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.98x) against Inter's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.35
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Inter xG
Total xG
2.83
1.02
AS Roma xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
16%
6.11
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
3%
28.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Inter and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Inter and 1.02 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs AS Roma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 68 outings, Inter have picked up 2.21 PPG on a 46W 12D 10L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 37W 12D 19L from 68 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.21 PPG for Inter against 1.81 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Inter have posted 2.29 PPG from 34 outings (24W 6D 4L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 14W 8D 12L from 34 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Inter are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.41 scored and 0.85 conceded. Inter's scoring rate against AS Roma's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; AS Roma in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 46W 12D 10L in their last 68 games (2.21 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 37W 12D 19L in their last 68 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or AS Roma away?
Inter's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.29 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Inter or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, AS Roma in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Inter go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 0-3 on 4 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inter have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Inter
0
Draws
2
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 8, AS Roma have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inter and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Inter 5-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Inter and AS Roma?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 59%, AS Roma 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Inter) and 32% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; AS Roma in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Inter's recent matches and 44% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Inter's recent games and 32% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inter and AS Roma tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Inter run riot with a 5-2 hammering of AS Roma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat AS Roma 5-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.81 xG and AS Roma 1.02 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Inter beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AS Roma outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.55 / defence 0.88 against AS Roma attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 56% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 21%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 53%, AS Roma 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inter 2.21 PPG, AS Roma 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter win broke the near-deadlock. Inter (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.